Weakening post-rally momentum drives Nvidia stock up 2.21%

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Nvidia rises 2.21% to $181.86 today

Highlights

Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and new tariff threats have driven oil above $111, triggering broad market sell-offs and global inflation fears.
Heightened conflict pressures the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive policy, negatively impacting technology stock valuations and international revenues.
NVDA faces elevated volatility and indecision, with price expected to oscillate between $179 and $185 as momentum fades and signals remain mixed.

Growth stocks pressured as Middle East tensions fuel inflation fears

Following an announcement that the U.S. plans to strike Iran "extremely hard" over the next 2-3 weeks, escalating Middle East conflict has driven oil prices above $111 and led to broad market sell-offs, notably impacting major technology stocks. On April 8, new U.S. tariff threats targeted countries supplying arms to Iran, raising the risk of retaliatory measures from the EU and increasing the likelihood of global trade tensions. Elevated oil prices and heightened conflict have increased inflation expectations, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy, which has negatively affected growth stock valuations and international technology revenues.

Momentum stalls as conflicting signals drive intraday indecision

Momentum signals are conflicted: MACD D1 shows strong downside pressure, while ADX is low and neutral, suggesting the existing trend is weak. Oscillators flag exhaustion, with Stoch RSI and BBP both strongly overbought and RSI D1 near neutral around 49.7, while CCI is neutral and AO is not confirming a clear direction. The daily session opened with a notable gap up ($177.94 to $184.45), but price has retreated from today’s high and now sits mid-range ($181.86), with intraday volatility at a moderate level. Overall, buyers dominated immediately after the open but momentum has faded, leading to a choppy, indecisive tone; conflicting signals between oscillators and momentum indicators underscore elevated uncertainty for near-term direction.

Sideways range likely as bearish signals cap upside risk

In the coming week, NVDA is expected to trade between $179.00 and $185.00, a volatility band relative to current levels to contain recent price swings. Probabilities favor a decrease, with a very low probability (less than 20%) of a rise based on neutral to bearish signals across weekly RSI, ADX, MACD, and the absence of weekly SMA or EMA buy triggers around current levels. The baseline scenario is continued sideways movement within the $179 – $185 range as buyers and sellers remain balanced. A break above $185 could rekindle bullish momentum toward near-term highs, while a decisive drop below $179 may open the way for a retracement toward broader support if negative momentum returns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, observes that NVIDIA remains resilient above key long-term supports despite recent global market stresses. He notes that rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions are fueling uncertainty, but sees the underlying strength in the technology sector as a positive macro factor. The analyst believes near-term technical signals are mixed, with neither bulls nor bears in clear control as the stock trades in a tight range between $179.00 and $185.00. Karapetjanc is optimistic that, if global tensions begin to ease and buyers reclaim $185.00, momentum could return to the upside. "The current environment is volatile, but I see constructive potential if NVDA holds its ground above key support levels."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia faced persistent selling pressure and heightened uncertainty, with technical and fundamental signals pointing to a cautious outlook characterized by consolidation and downside risk. The current environment adds further complexity with rising geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures, suggesting traders should closely monitor for volatility spikes and the potential for sharp moves outside the established range as global macro risks intensify.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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