Nvidia stock trades up amid rebound from early lows and push to new highs

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Nvidia jumps 1.64% today to $201.20

Highlights

Nvidia's CEO has called for a review of US export limits on AI chips to China, citing geopolitical and business risks.
Concerns persist that China's expanding datacenter infrastructure could soon rival US AI hardware capability, elevating competitive pressures.
NVDA exhibits strong bullish momentum with a high probability of testing $205 in the next week, supported by persistent buying despite overbought signals.

Geopolitical risks intensify as CEO warns on China parity

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has urged the Trump administration to reconsider export restrictions on AI processors to China, emphasizing the importance of international dialogue on AI safety. Huang has also warned that China's extensive 'ghost datacenters' and hardware capacity could match advanced US AI capabilities, publicly pointing to potential strategic parity in critical technology infrastructure. Ongoing US-China tensions around technology exports and AI regulation have introduced heightened geopolitical risks impacting Nvidia's operational landscape.

Overbought signals diverge from bullish trend as volatility surges

Momentum signals on NVDA remain positive, with both MACD and RSI issuing 'Buy' signals on daily and weekly timeframes. The ADX shows moderate trend strength, while several oscillators — including Stoch RSI and CCI — highlight overbought conditions. BBP reflects ongoing buyer dominance in intraday trading, and the Awesome Oscillator reaffirms the current bullish trend. While the price initially opened with a small gap down, it quickly moved to the upper end of today's range ($196.12 – $199.84) and now stands above the intraday high, indicating robust early session momentum and above-average volatility. Notably, overbought oscillator signals are diverging from continued bullish trend indicators.

Sideways consolidation likely as upside tests approach resistance

For the next five trading days, a volatility band relative to current levels is expected between $196 and $205. The probability of an upward move remains above 80%, while a decline appears less likely. The base scenario favors NVDA consolidating in a sideways corridor near current prices, with existing momentum supporting potential tests of the $205 level. A sustained move above $205 could trigger the next leg higher, but a drop below $196 — immediate support from the Ichimoku Kijun — would point to a short-term correction, which remains the lower-probability case.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union expert, sees continued technical strength in NVDA as prices trade decisively above key moving averages and the Ichimoku Kijun. He notes that bullish momentum is strong, but overbought signals and heightened US-China regulatory risk call for caution. The analyst believes a sideways consolidation near current levels is the base scenario, with $205 as main resistance and $196 as support. "While the short-term setup favors consolidation, I remain defensive given overbought conditions and geopolitical uncertainty — until we see a clear break above $205 or below $196, risk management is key."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia’s ongoing strength in the AI sector and robust institutional support were driving a sustained bullish trend in the stock. The current environment not only reinforces this bullish momentum but also introduces heightened geopolitical risks around U.S.-China technology policy, making $205 a key level for traders monitoring potential breakout or reversal scenarios.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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