Nvidia stock edges lower as strong recent momentum fades from highs

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Nvidia slides 1.19% to $199.06 today

Highlights

Nvidia refuted acquisition rumors of any PC maker, emphasizing its focus on full-stack AI platforms driving data center sales growth.
Institutional investors rebalanced Nvidia holdings in Q4 as the stock faced continued broad market selling pressure.
NVDA shows strong bullish signals and sustained buying momentum, with a projected trading range of $193.80 to $204.20 and support likely near $193.80.

Investor positioning shifts as Nvidia rebuts acquisition rumors

Nvidia has denied reports regarding discussions to acquire any PC maker, with an official spokesperson confirming that no such talks are taking place. The company continues to highlight its full-stack AI platform strategy, particularly the role of its CUDA software and Grace Blackwell systems, now accounting for two-thirds of data center sales. Recent regulatory filings indicated that several institutional investors made adjustments to their positions in Nvidia during the fourth quarter, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Overbought momentum persists amid narrow trading and weak trend

The nearest technical support is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun level on the daily chart at $182.98, just beneath the SMA-20 ($181.45), SMA-50 ($183.30), and SMA-200 ($181.77), while resistance is indicated near recent highs. Oscillators are registering overbought readings, with RSI at 71.19, Stoch RSI at 100, and CCI at 156.30; BBP readings are firmly positive and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) supports bullish momentum. Momentum indicators are strong, as the MACD signals a buy and the ADX remains flat at a low 15.28, showing limited trend strength. Intraday price action has stayed within a narrow range, with a minor gap down at the open and subdued volatility.

Elevated upside risk as consolidation limits tested by momentum

NVDA is likely to move within a $193.80 to $204.20 volatility band relative to current levels over the coming week. The probability of a short-term price increase remains elevated, supported by recent moving average and momentum indicator signals. The base scenario is for the stock to consolidate between $193.80 support and $204.20 resistance. A breakout above $204.20 would reflect renewed buying, while a reversal below $193.80 could occur if profit-taking intensifies from overbought conditions or current momentum stalls.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Nvidia remaining above key averages, but momentum is showing signs of exhaustion. He notes that institutional positioning is mixed and recent denial of acquisition rumors does little to shift sentiment from current pressure. Resistance near $204.20 remains significant, with support forming at $193.80. "Base case remains range-bound below $204.20; without fresh catalysts, I’m cautious until momentum builds or $193.80 breaks."

Previously it was reported that Nvidia's technical posture and strategic momentum underpinned a broadly bullish outlook. The current setup reinforces this view while the persistent overbought readings and concentrated institutional activity suggest that traders should closely watch for either a breakout above $204.20 or a reversal should momentum stall.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.