Shell stock price forecast: £3,381.75 resistance as SHEL trades flat

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Shell climbs 0.41% today to GBX3,313.00

Highlights

Shell executed a buyback of 1,132,300 shares at a weighted average price of £32.97/€37.97 per share on April 22, anticipating increased Q1 adjusted earnings from marketing and oil trading due to Middle East volatility.
Recent guidance points to notable non-cash lease adjustments and material working capital outflows influencing Shell’s quarterly results.
Shell’s shares are consolidating between GBX 3,200.00 and GBX 3,350.00, with mixed momentum signals suggesting cautious short-term sentiment but a low probability of decline below support.

Buy-back activity and earnings optimism as volatility drives flows

Shell disclosed that it purchased 1,132,300 shares for cancellation across multiple trading venues as part of its ongoing share buy-back programme, with a volume-weighted average price of £32.97 per share on the London Stock Exchange and €37.97 per share on European venues on April 22, 2026. The company also stated that it expects significantly higher adjusted earnings from marketing and oil trading in the first quarter, attributing this to volatility linked to events in the Middle East. In addition, Shell's latest guidance cited impacts from substantial non-cash lease adjustments and working capital outflows.

Oversold momentum and seller bias amid consolidation below resistance

SHEL is trading below the SMA-20 (GBX 3,422.08), while staying above the SMA-50 (GBX 3,240.31) and well above the SMA-200 (GBX 2,850.15). The Ichimoku Kijun level at GBX 3,381.75 aligns with immediate resistance. D1 MACD is neutral, ADX shows mild seller bias, and daily RSI (46.74), CCI (-106.40), and Stoch RSI all indicate slightly oversold conditions. BBP is decisively negative and oversold, confirming sellers’ dominance in intraday trade, while the Awesome Oscillator remains weak. Price remains within a midpoint range of GBX 3,301.00 to GBX 3,332.00, with sideways consolidation observed and moderate intraday volatility.

Range consolidation likely as breakout hinges on momentum shift

For the next five sessions, typical volatility places the expected price range for SHEL between GBX 3,200.00 and GBX 3,350.00. The most probable scenario is continued consolidation within this range, with breakout potential above GBX 3,381.75 if buyers regain control. Downside risk remains very limited unless sellers force a break below GBX 3,200.00. Weekly indicators still reflect an underlying upward bias, though caution is warranted until near-term momentum improves.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Shell showing short-term weakness, with technicals pointing to seller dominance below the SMA-20. He notes that despite buy-back activity and positive Q1 guidance, daily momentum remains fragile and sellers control the range. The current trend favors consolidation, with limited downside unless GBX 3,200.00 is breached. "Until SHEL reclaims GBX 3,381.75, I remain cautious and will not chase upside here."

Previously it was reported that Shell’s outlook remained neutral as technical and corporate factors pointed to ongoing consolidation despite legal and asset sale pressures. The latest earnings guidance and continued buybacks reinforce this sideways scenario, with the immediate focus on a potential breakout above resistance as the catalyst for Shell’s next directional move.

Source of Data: SHEL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.