EUR/USD trades around 1.17 in a narrow 1.16–1.18 range, showing consolidation ahead of key central bank meetings. Markets are avoiding large positions, awaiting signals from the ECB and Fed, as well as reactions to geopolitics and oil.
Annual inflation accelerated to 2.6% in March, core to 2.3%, with household expectations for the next year rising to around 4%. This ramps up pressure on the ECB, increasing chances of hawkish rhetoric despite fragile economic growth.
USD gains from risk-off sentiment, geopolitical tensions (including Iran), and elevated U.S. Treasury yields near 4.34% on 10-year notes. The dollar retains safe-haven status amid uncertainty.
Brent has surpassed $111 per barrel due to Middle East risks and supply deficits. This fuels European inflation, worsens the eurozone trade balance, and indirectly bolsters USD via higher yields.
The ECB on April 30 will likely pause but inflation could prompt a hawkish tone. The Fed holds rates steady, with rhetoric key: hawkishness strengthens USD, dovish hints lift EUR/USD.
Supporting EUR: potential hawkish ECB signal and EU economic recovery signs. Favoring USD: geopolitical risks, oil above $111, robust U.S. backdrop, and cautious Fed.
Bullish scenario (1.18–1.20) if ECB turns tough, Fed softens, oil falls. Bearish (1.15–1.16) on rising risks, higher oil, firm Fed. Base case: flat with news-driven volatility in 1.16–1.18.
Latest EUR/USD News
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