Bitcoin remains capped below resistance as U.S. ETF outflows extend

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Bitcoin capped by ETF outflows

Highlights

Bitcoin trades around $76,100 below resistance, with analysts attributing lack of breakout to Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and hawkish dissent.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs experience $138 million in net outflows for the third day on April 29, while spot ether ETFs lose $87.7 million led by FETH.
Glassnode reports ETF assets and CME open interest stabilizing; perpetual futures net short bias reaches record depth, suggesting potential for short squeezes if sentiment shifts.

Fed split and market positioning

As reported by The Block, traders are focusing less on the rate pause itself and more on what analysts describe as an unusually deep split within the Federal Reserve. Thomas Perfumo, chief economist at Kraken, says the lack of a clean leadership handoff alongside Jerome Powell’s continued presence on the board and Kevin Warsh’s expected rise is adding policy uncertainty that weighs on crypto and other growth-sensitive assets.

Shortly before the U.S. market open, bitcoin trades at about $76,100 after moving between an intraday high of $77,583 and a low of $75,014. Analysts cited in the report say the market is no longer reacting mainly to the absence of a rate cut, but to concerns that the Fed is losing internal consensus over inflation and may need to keep policy tighter for longer.

That view is echoed across crypto research desks. Alvin Kan of Bitget Wallet says bitcoin’s inability to sustain moves above the $77,000 to $78,000 zone reflects a balance between structural support from institutional interest and continued macro restraint, while analysts at Nansen and 21Shares say restrictive policy signals and hawkish dissent are limiting upside.

ETF flows and institutional demand signals

Analysts at the firm say bitcoin remains trapped below the True Market Mean, with support clustered between $65,000 and $70,000, easing spot selling pressure and some signs that institutional flows are stabilizing. Even so, they say demand remains too weak to support a lasting breakout higher.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs record a third consecutive day of net outflows on April 29, following the end of a nine-day inflow streak earlier in the week. SoSoValue data show $138 million in total net outflows, although Morgan Stanley’s MSBT posts the largest single-day inflow among the products at $10.8 million, while spot ether ETFs lose another $87.7 million, led by Fidelity’s FETH.

Glassnode data suggest ETF assets under management and CME open interest are stabilizing after earlier outflows, indicating tentative institutional re-entry rather than full conviction. Analysts also note that perpetual futures are showing their deepest net short bias on record, creating room for short squeezes if sentiment improves or spot demand strengthens, while lower implied and realized volatility points to a calmer but still indecisive market.

Our earlier coverage of weakening U.S. spot demand highlighted how Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium flipped negative after a strong mid-April stretch, signaling softer buying interest versus offshore markets. The piece also noted a sharp spike in realized losses—driven by holders selling coins bought at higher levels—as bitcoin hovered near $76,000, with losses beginning to ease later in the month as the pool of forced sellers thinned.

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