EUR/USD remains in a zone of elevated news sensitivity and is trading within the 1.1660–1.1780 range, while the market still sees range-bound trading without a sustained trend. Recent reports suggest that the main driver for the pair is not so much an improvement in eurozone fundamentals, but rather the weakening of the dollar’s momentum amid expectations of Fed easing and a repricing of the dollar carry premium.
The main bullish argument for EUR/USD remains tied to the dollar: the market is pricing in a softer Fed path, and Morgan Stanley expects further DXY weakness in the first half of 2026, with the index potentially falling toward the 94 area before stabilizing later in the year. This makes EUR/USD’s upside largely a function of USD weakness rather than a clear acceleration in the eurozone economy.
A major counterweight to this scenario is oil and Middle East geopolitics. For EUR/USD, this means that any deterioration in the situation in the Middle East could quickly push the pair lower, even if the broader dollar trend remains weak.
The ECB does not yet look aggressive enough to give the euro a durable standalone advantage, so the pair’s upside remains vulnerable without confirmation from European data. In this setup, U.S. data — especially labor market figures and signals on the pace of Fed easing — remains decisive for the direction of DXY and, by extension, EUR/USD. If U.S. data starts to confirm a more dovish Fed cycle, that would strengthen the case for an upside breakout; if inflation or oil-related risks reaccelerate, the dollar could quickly regain control.
The base case for the coming weeks remains range trading with a moderate upward bias, but without a clear trend, roughly within the 1.1620–1.1800 corridor. A break above 1.1800 would require a clear extension of dollar weakness and confirmation of a dovish Fed repricing, while a move back toward 1.15–1.16 would be likely if oil rises again, risk-off sentiment intensifies, and demand for the dollar as a safe haven returns.
Latest EUR/USD News
-
Afghanistan
-
Albania
-
Algeria
-
Angola
-
Argentina
-
Armenia
-
Australia
-
Austria
-
Azerbaijan
-
Bahamas
-
Bahrain
-
Bangladesh
-
Belarus
-
Belgium
-
Bolivia
-
Botswana
-
Brazil
-
Brunei
-
Bulgaria
-
Cambodia
-
Cameroon
-
Canada
-
Chile
-
China
-
Colombia
-
Congo
-
Costa Rica
-
Cote d'Ivoire
-
Croatia
-
Cuba
-
Cyprus
-
Czechia
-
DR Congo
-
Denmark
-
Dominican Republic
-
Ecuador
-
Egypt
-
El Salvador
-
Estonia
-
Eswatini
-
Ethiopia
-
Finland
-
France
-
Georgia
-
Germany
-
Ghana
-
Greece
-
Haiti
-
Hong Kong
-
Hungary
-
India
-
Indonesia
-
Iran, Islamic republic
-
Iraq
-
Ireland
-
Israel
-
Italy
-
Jamaica
-
Japan
-
Jordan
-
Kazakhstan
-
Kenya
-
Korea
-
Kuwait
-
Kyrgyzstan
-
Laos
-
Latvia
-
Lebanon
-
Lesotho
-
Libya
-
Lithuania
-
Luxembourg
-
Madagascar
-
Malaysia
-
Malta
-
Mauritius
-
Mexico
-
Moldova
-
Mongolia
-
Montenegro
-
Morocco
-
Mozambique
-
Myanmar
-
Namibia
-
Nepal
-
Netherlands
-
New Zealand
-
Nigeria
-
North Macedonia
-
Norway
-
Oman
-
Pakistan
-
Palestine
-
Panama
-
Papua New Guinea
-
Paraguay
-
Peru
-
Philippines
-
Poland
-
Portugal
-
Puerto Rico
-
Qatar
-
Reunion
-
Romania
-
Rwanda
-
Saudi Arabia
-
Serbia
-
Singapore
-
Slovakia
-
Slovenia
-
Somalia
-
South Africa
-
Spain
-
Sri Lanka
-
Sweden
-
Switzerland
-
Syria
-
Taiwan
-
Tajikistan
-
Tanzania
-
Thailand
-
Trinidad and Tobago
-
Tunisia
-
Turkey
-
UAE
-
Uganda
-
Ukraine
-
United Kingdom
-
United States
-
Uruguay
-
Uzbekistan
-
Venezuela
-
Vietnam
-
Yemen
-
Zambia
-
Zimbabwe
- Forex
- Crypto
