Gold price forecast: $4,693 support in focus as XAU stays rangebound

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Gold down 0.61% today at $4,706.55

Highlights

US gold exports jumped to $4.6–$8.0 billion per month after April 2025 tariff exemptions, reshaping global liquidity flows.
Ongoing Middle East tensions and US-Iran hostilities boosted safe-haven gold demand, with India and central banks accelerating purchases.
Despite short-term selling pressure and signs of buyer exhaustion, gold maintains a bullish technical outlook with an 80% probability of testing $4,800–$4,845 in the next five days.

Gold trade flows surge amid tariff exemption and regional tensions

Gold exports from the United States surged to between $4.6 billion and $8.0 billion per month in early 2026, following the exemption of gold from tariffs in April 2025. This regulatory change prompted banks and central banks to accelerate cross-border shipments, shifting global liquidity and trade flows. Regional tensions in the Middle East, with the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing US-Iran hostilities, increased safe-haven demand for gold, while India’s higher gold imports and ongoing accumulation by central banks in China, the Czech Republic, and Poland further influenced physical demand — though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum signals as price nears key resistance

Technical analysis points to gold remaining above the SMA-20 at $4,673.15, SMA-50 at $4,651.58, and SMA-200 at $4,585.00, reflecting sustained positive alignment across short-, medium-, and long-term averages. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily chart is at $4,693.86, currently acting as immediate resistance. Momentum readings diverge, with the MACD showing strong selling pressure and a weakly negative ADX suggesting a limited directional trend, while the RSI sits in the mid-range buy area. Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) indicate overbought conditions and buyer dominance, but both the CCI and Awesome Oscillator are neutral. Gold opened the week with a small gap down from $4,735.46 to $4,720.10 and is now approaching the lower end of today's range at $4,686.69–$4,729.70 amid steady downward price pressure and moderate intraday volatility. Oscillator divergences highlight potential buyer exhaustion against an otherwise bullish price structure.

Consolidation favored as high upside probability persists

Over the next five trading days, gold is expected to remain volatile within a range of $4,690–$4,845, reflecting the typical variability band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is assessed as very high (over 80%), with a decline considered unlikely unless downward momentum gathers strength. The main scenario anticipates consolidation between near-term support and resistance, as the market tests control near recent highs. A sustained break above the $4,745–$4,750 zone would likely target $4,800–$4,845, while a breach below $4,693 could trigger stops and prompt retests toward $4,690–$4,680, though deeper losses appear less probable.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that gold’s broader trend remains resilient above key moving averages despite recent price weakness. He sees the regulatory-driven surge in US gold exports and steady central bank demand as positive for the long-term outlook. However, technical indicators point to short-term selling pressures and potential buyer exhaustion. "Base case remains for price consolidation — if $4,693 fails to hold, I expect deeper corrections before any renewed move higher."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold was maintaining resilience above key support despite shifting geopolitical and macroeconomic drivers. The latest surge in U.S. gold exports and intensifying Middle East tensions further strengthen the positive trend structure, making a sustained break above the $4,745–$4,750 resistance zone the most critical signal for short-term direction.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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