Aviva stock price forecast: GBX 628.40 resistance as AV trades flat near GBX 622.20

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Aviva rises 0.81% to GBX622.20 today

Highlights

Aviva's general insurance premiums surged 19% in Q1 2026 to £3.4 billion, driven by the Direct Line integration.
Shareholder returns were bolstered by a 26.2p final dividend, £350 million buyback, and a robust 171% Solvency II coverage ratio.
AV trades below key technical averages with bearish momentum; price likely to range between GBX 615 and 630 in coming sessions.

Premium surge and robust capital returns as Direct Line lifts results

Aviva reported a 19% increase in general insurance premiums for the first quarter of 2026, primarily reflecting the integration of Direct Line, which contributed £174 million and drove the overall premium base to £3.4 billion. Capital allocation measures remained in focus, with the company confirming a final dividend of 26.2 pence per share and executing a £350 million share buyback, including the repurchase of 900,000 shares at an average price of 620.38 pence as part of its return programme. Aviva also disclosed a Solvency II shareholder cover ratio of 171% after dividend payments and updated debt structures, reinforcing its strong capital position. Net new flows in its platform business grew by 24% year-on-year, further highlighting operational momentum.

Muted momentum dominates as resistance stiffens across technical barriers

AV is encountering immediate resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun level of GBX 628.40, with additional hurdles at MA-20 (GBX 629.27), MA-50 (GBX 627.94), and MA-200 (GBX 652.42). Support is established at GBX 615.00, marking the lower end of the expected trading band. Momentum indicators reinforce prevailing weakness: MACD and ADX show lack of positive drive, while D1 oscillators — RSI at 44.80, Stoch RSI at 31.27, CCI at -98.93 — all point to muted momentum, keeping the asset out of oversold territory. The BBP registers 1.23, suggesting pockets of buyer activity in intraday action, but this is countered by the Awesome Oscillator, which confirms downside pressure. Today's session included a gap down at the open from GBX 617.20 to GBX 602.20, with price rebounding mid-range — a technical signal of moderate volatility but tentative stabilization after early weakness.

Sideways trading baseline as breakout risk remains subdued

Over the next five trading days, AV is expected to trade within the typical volatility band of GBX 615.00 to GBX 630.00. The probability of a sustained upside move is low, with limited indications supporting prices above the 628.40 resistance level. The baseline scenario suggests continued sideways trading between support at GBX 615 and resistance at GBX 628. A bullish outcome would require a decisive breakout and close above GBX 628.40, while a close below GBX 615 could trigger accelerated downside momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union expert, notes that recent premium growth and strong capital returns have not translated into sustained price momentum for Aviva. He sees technical indicators and price action reflecting continued seller dominance below key resistance at GBX 628.40. The analyst remains defensive while support at GBX 615.00 holds firm. "Until AV can decisively reclaim and close above GBX 628.40, I see no reliable upside setup for bulls here."

Earlier, analysts noted that Aviva was encountering persistent selling pressure with little evidence of an imminent reversal in trend. With the latest results highlighting robust operational gains but technical signals reinforcing ongoing caution, traders should monitor for a decisive move above GBX 628.40 or below GBX 615.00 as the key trigger for the next directional shift.

Source of Data: AV Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.