Texas Senate race sharpens as Trump backs Ken Paxton in Republican run-off

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Texas Senate race heats up

Highlights

Donald Trump endorses Ken Paxton for the Texas Republican Senate run-off, intensifying divisions between the party's Maga base and establishment.
Real Clear Politics polling average shows Democratic contender James Talarico would narrowly defeat Paxton in a hypothetical general election match-up.
Republican leaders fear Paxton's legal controversies and public scandals may jeopardize their slim Senate majority if he becomes the nominee.

Endorsement reshapes Republican primary

As reported by Financial Times, Trump endorses Paxton in the final stretch before next Tuesday's Republican run-off in Texas, praising him on Truth Social as a "winner" and a "true Maga warrior" while saying the attorney-general has been loyal to him.

The intervention weakens Cornyn, a four-term senator who is identified with the more institutional wing of the Republican Party. Trump calls Cornyn a "good man" but says he was not supportive when times were tough, underscoring the divide between the party establishment and the Maga base.

Paxton says he is "incredibly honoured" to receive the president's backing. Cornyn responds on X by urging Texas Republican voters to choose a strong nominee who can help other Republican candidates and defeat Democratic contender James Talarico in November, rather than a weak nominee who could jeopardise the party's broader prospects.

General election risks come into focus

Republican leaders in Washington are uneasy because they hold only a slim U.S. Senate majority and argue Cornyn is better placed to hold the seat. A Real Clear Politics average of Texas polls shows Talarico would narrowly beat Paxton in a hypothetical match-up if the election were held now.

Democrats see Paxton's legal and personal controversies as a potential liability with moderate voters. He is among the most vocal backers of Trump's effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election, speaks at the January 6, 2021 rally in Washington, is previously indicted on securities fraud charges that are later dismissed, and is impeached in 2023 by Texas's Republican-controlled legislature on bribery, abuse of office and corruption charges.

His private life has also drawn attention after his estranged wife says last year that she is filing for divorce "on biblical grounds". Joshua Blank, a political analyst at the University of Texas at Austin, says Trump's endorsement likely signals Paxton is already in a strong position, adding that the president is reluctant to back candidates who are not well placed to win.

In our earlier coverage of Trump’s endorsement of Ken Paxton in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff, we explained how the late-campaign backing intensified the contest with incumbent Sen. John Cornyn as early voting began. We also noted that the race was extremely tight and that the runoff winner would face Democrat James Talarico in November, with Republicans still favored but mindful that a divisive primary could create general-election vulnerabilities.

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