EUR/USD is currently facing pressure from the US dollar and is trading slightly below the 1.1600 level following a recent decline from the 1.1700–1.1800 range, reflecting rising US Treasury yields and increased demand for safe-haven currencies. Remaining below 1.1650 and losing the 1.1600 mark increases the risk of a further decline toward 1.1500, while short-term correction attempts are limited by resistance zones around 1.1650–1.1680.
Fundamental factors
Rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar continue to support the bearish trend, while the euro still has some local supportive factors — including the possibility of tighter monetary policy in the eurozone and energy price pressures, which may limit the euro’s upside in the short term. In the coming sessions, the pair will remain sensitive to inflation data releases, central bank meeting minutes, and geopolitical risk developments, all of which are increasing demand for the USD.
Near-term outlook
The pair may remain under selling pressure, with the nearest downside targets seen at 1.1570–1.1540. Pullbacks toward 1.1620–1.1650 may be used as selling opportunities; a breakout above the latter level could trigger growth toward 1.1680, where the pair may also face renewed selling pressure. Only a sustained move above that level would weaken the bearish grip.
At this stage I continue to maintain a bearish outlook, as stated in the article EUR/USD remains under pressure as markets price in a more hawkish Fed.
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