Silver price forecast: $80.50 resistance in focus as XAG trades flat

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Silver gains 0.78% today to $75.73

Highlights

The Trump administration's decision against imposing broad tariffs on silver removes a major regulatory risk and stabilizes global supply chains.
Pursuing 180-day bilateral agreements with trading partners increases predictability for international silver flows and supports market confidence.
Technical signals indicate silver consolidates in a $74.00–$77.00 range with a high probability of near-term price gains despite subdued momentum.

Market confidence rises as regulatory risk is removed

The Trump administration has concluded its Section 232 critical minerals review without imposing broad tariffs on silver, removing a major regulatory risk and supporting stable supply channels for the global market. The decision to pursue 180-day bilateral agreements with trading partners further ensures continuity in international silver flows and reduces uncertainty for producers and buyers. This regulatory clarity has improved confidence in silver's market structure, explaining the current upward momentum.

Bearish momentum lingers despite resistance test and gap open

Technically, XAG faces resistance at the SMA-20 ($78.45) and SMA-50 ($76.91), while longer-term support rests above the SMA-200 ($74.73). The Ichimoku Kijun level at $80.56 marks a significant overhead barrier, and the market opened with a small upward gap ($75.40 vs previous close $75.14). On D1, MACD signals a sell and the ADX at 14.56 points to a lack of strong trend direction, while both RSI and CCI indicate neutral to mildly bearish momentum. The Stoch RSI is neutral, BBP signals seller dominance (oversold), and the Awesome Oscillator confirms bearish momentum, all suggesting sluggish short-term oscillators and a divergence between momentum and recent upward movement. Price currently trades around the middle of the day's range ($75.30–$76.30) with moderate volatility and a tone of sideways consolidation.

Bullish weekly bias persists amid range-bound consolidation risks

Over the next five trading days, silver is expected to consolidate within a typical volatility band of $74.07 to $76.82. The probability of a price increase is very high (greater than 80%), with bullish weekly signals supporting a baseline scenario of continued sideways movement between $74.00 and $77.00. A break above $76.82 could open upside potential toward the Ichimoku resistance near $80.50, while a decline below $74.00 would put longer-term support near the SMA-200 ($74.73) at risk.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees silver as constrained despite recent gains. He notes that the Trump administration's regulatory clarity has eased market fears, but technical signals remain unconvincing. Short-term oscillators and weak momentum limit upside conviction and favor continued sideways movement. "Until XAG decisively breaks above $76.82, I remain cautious and expect more range trading than a real breakout."

Earlier, analysts noted that despite strong underlying demand, silver remained subject to persistent bearish pressure as sellers maintained control. The removal of regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. adds a supportive dimension, making any sustained move above $76.82 a key signal for potential bullish momentum.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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