Gold trades flat as China, Poland, Türkiye, India increase official gold holdings

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Gold slides 0.58% today to $4,462.69

Highlights

Gold has surpassed US Treasuries and the euro to become the largest official reserve asset, reaching a 27% share of global central bank reserves by end-2025.
Annual central bank gold purchases remain robust at approximately 850 tonnes, with China, Poland, Türkiye, and India driving recent demand despite slower accumulation than recent peaks.
Gold trades under sustained downside pressure, with bearish momentum dominating and prices expected to consolidate between $4,350 and $4,500 barring a break of key support or resistance.

Central bank demand boosts gold’s reserve share despite price pressure

Gold has become the world's largest official reserve asset, holding a 27% share of global reserves at the end of 2025 according to the European Central Bank. This shift reflects an increase in central bank demand, as holdings of gold now exceed those of US Treasuries and the euro, with China, Poland, Türkiye, and India leading official sector purchases in recent years. Although the European Central Bank noted that official sector gold buying reached approximately 850 tonnes in 2025, the pace is down from the recent peak but remains robust compared to historical averages, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Technical indicators reinforce weak outlook amid resistance and divergences

SMA-20 ($4,555.06), SMA-50 ($4,644.98), and SMA-200 ($4,628.99) all remain well above the current price, reinforcing a technically weak bias. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $4,570.34 is acting as immediate resistance. The D1 MACD and ADX both point to selling pressure, with RSI, CCI, and Stoch RSI indicating continued bearish or neutral momentum. BBP intraday readings show strong seller dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral. Minor divergences exist among some oscillators, but the technical picture broadly favors downside scenarios.

Limited rebound prospects as gold consolidates within narrow range

In the short term, gold is expected to fluctuate in the $4,350 to $4,500 volatility band relative to current levels. The likelihood of a meaningful rebound is low, with less than a 20% chance of a sustained advance over the next five sessions. The baseline scenario is for sideways consolidation around the current range; a break above $4,570 would open room for a bullish move, while a failure of support near $4,350 may accelerate further declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the global reserve shift to gold as a major long-term support. He notes that central banks remain steady buyers even as tactical momentum is weak. Technical signals and price action suggest sellers remain in control for now. He believes any rebound will need stronger evidence of demand returning to the market. "Short-term risks persist, but with gold now the world’s top reserve asset, I see scope for constructive medium-term positioning if support near $4,350 holds."

Previously it was reported that securing domestic supplies of critical minerals like antimony has become a strategic priority for the United States in response to global supply chain vulnerabilities. Gold's current technical setup and official sector demand trends add a new dimension to this narrative, with traders advised to monitor for any break above $4,570 as a catalyst for a potential shift in momentum.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.