Barrick Gold stock price forecast: C$53.75 support in focus as ABX drops 1.76%

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Barrick Gold slides 1.76% to C$56.08

Highlights

Barrick Gold's first-quarter revenue surged 67% year-over-year, driven by strong operational performance and increased gold production.
The company announced a $3 billion share buyback and plans for IPOs of its North American and African businesses to optimize its portfolio.
Shares remain under pronounced selling pressure, with technicals signaling sustained bearish momentum and high probability of downside within a C$53.75–C$58.41 range.

Shareholder returns prioritized as portfolio streamlining faces selling pressure

Barrick Gold recorded strong operational results for the first quarter, achieving a 67% increase in year-over-year revenue and higher gold production, according to Seekingalpha. The company also authorized a new $3 billion share buyback and maintained a 2.21% dividend yield, directing capital toward shareholder returns. Plans for IPOs of its North American and African businesses, as reported by Seekingalpha, represent continuing efforts to streamline its portfolio—though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum confirmed as technicals indicate persistent downside

On the technical side, ABX is trading below its MA-20 at C$58.82, MA-50 at C$56.84 on the H1 chart, and the long-term MA-200 at C$56.15 on the daily timeframe. Immediate resistance is seen at the Ichimoku Kijun level of C$58.64. The session's close came with an opening gap down of 1.05, and current price action sits mid-range for the day amid low volatility. Momentum indicators provide consistent bearish signals, as the RSI stands at 33.54 (Sell), with both MACD and ADX reflecting strong selling pressure. The Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP show oversold or seller-dominated conditions, while the Awesome Oscillator aligns to a sell reading, collectively confirming downside momentum with no technical evidence yet of reversal.

Downside breakout risk elevated as upside prospects remain limited

Looking ahead over the next two to three trading days, ABX is expected to trade within a range of C$53.75 to C$58.41 as defined by typical volatility. The likelihood of a move higher is considered very low, while further downside is rated as having a very high probability. Baseline expectations call for sideways consolidation inside the projected band. A breakout above resistance at C$58.64 would be needed to validate a short-term bullish scenario; in contrast, a drop through support at C$53.75 would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Barrick Gold’s Q1 strength and capital returns as solid fundamental positives. He notes that technical momentum remains bearish despite these supports, with shares trading under key moving averages. Karapetjanc believes persistent portfolio restructuring could unlock future value, but the market’s sentiment is currently cautious. "If share price can reclaim C$58.64, I expect sentiment to improve and buyers to step in again."

Earlier, analysts noted that Barrick Gold faced persistent selling pressure despite some underlying long-term optimism. The current outlook strengthens this view, highlighting that traders should closely monitor for a potential breakdown below C$53.75 in the days ahead as downside momentum remains dominant.

Source of Data: ABX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.