Jefferies upgrades Ford and General Motors as earnings outlook improves

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Jefferies upgrades Ford and GM

Highlights

Jefferies upgrades Ford and General Motors to buy from hold, raising GM's target price to $99 and Ford's to $17.50, citing improved operating trends.
GM's second-quarter earnings and revenue exceeded expectations, with increased 2026 outlook, full-year pricing guidance at 0.5%, and $500 million in first-half warranty cost savings.
Jefferies sees Ford's volumes recovering after Novelis supply disruption, expects positive second-quarter guidance update, and notes Ford shares up 9.5% year-to-date versus GM's 1.6%.

Brokerage calls highlight earnings and target upside

As reported by CNBC, Jefferies raises both automakers to buy from hold and lifts its price targets, citing improving operating trends at General Motors and Ford Motor.

For GM, the bank increases its target price to $99 from $90, implying nearly 20% upside from Friday's close. Analyst Philippe Houchois says the upgrade is driven by the company's second-quarter report, which includes earnings and revenue above expectations as well as a higher 2026 guidance outlook.

Houchois says GM raises full-year pricing guidance to 0.5%, the high end of its previous range, even as that implies some softening in the second half to keep inventories low ahead of year-end truck launches. He also points to progress on warranty costs, with $500 million achieved in the first half and further improvement expected in the third quarter, with a smaller benefit in the fourth quarter.

Jefferies also raises its target on Ford to $17.50 from $14.50, indicating almost 22% upside from Friday's close. Houchois says Ford is positioned to rebuild momentum, with the second quarter likely marking a trough for volumes before production normalizes higher after the Novelis disruption.

U.S. policy backdrop and analyst sentiment shape outlook

Jefferies says U.S. policies are putting GM earnings on a less risky path, despite market concerns around the status of the USMCA trade agreement and oil prices. For Ford, the bank says healthy U.S. market conditions could support a guidance increase when the company reports second-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday.

Ford's production outlook has been affected by Novelis, an aluminum supplier that restarted output last month at a New York facility serving the F-150 line after two fires halted activity. Jefferies expects that restart to help normalize volumes.

Broader Wall Street sentiment remains more cautious on Ford than on GM. LSEG data shows 17 of 24 analysts covering Ford rate the shares hold, while two rate them underperform or sell and five rate them buy or strong buy. For GM, 22 of 31 analysts assign buy or strong buy ratings.

Ford shares are up 9.5% this year, while GM shares have gained 1.6%, showing investors have already rewarded Ford more strongly even as Jefferies argues both stocks still have room to rise.

Our earlier article on the heavy week for investors outlined how central-bank decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan—along with key GDP releases—could steer markets. It also noted that geopolitics and energy-price moves were complicating rate expectations and risk sentiment just as a busy earnings calendar got underway.

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