Nvidia stock tops $172 after China chip export approval

Highlights

- Nvidia is trading at $172.41 and approaching key resistance at $175, with technical indicators pointing to a potential breakout toward $180.

- U.S. approval of Nvidia’s H20 chip exports to China has eased regulatory concerns and reignited investor confidence.

- As long as the stock holds above $159 support, the bullish trend remains intact, with short-term upside likely.

Nvidia is holding well above its near-term support levels despite recent market volatility. The stock is currently trading between the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and its recent all-time high, having reclaimed the 200-day SMA in early June. The completion of a golden cross last month, where the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA, remains a strong bullish signal.

Nvidia’s current support levels lie at $165, $159, and then $150. These zones represent recent consolidation areas and volume nodes from prior pullbacks. As long as NVDA holds above $159, the medium-term trend remains upward. On the upside, resistance sits at $174.50 to $175, which marks the upper boundary of the current range. A daily close above this level would likely trigger technical buying and trend-following momentum, opening the way toward $180 and possibly $185 in coming weeks.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (May 2025 - July 2025). Source: TradingView

Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are not yet in extreme overbought territory, currently hovering near 63, suggesting room for further upside. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) remains positive but has flattened slightly in recent sessions, in line with a brief consolidation. Volume has eased from the late June surge, reflecting reduced volatility, but there is no sign of distribution or topping behavior.

China chip clearance and AI tailwinds drive optimism

The broader market backdrop continues to support high-beta growth names like Nvidia. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both trading near record levels, with investor risk appetite buoyed by strong economic data, a stable Federal Reserve policy outlook, and ongoing excitement around artificial intelligence.

A key catalyst for Nvidia’s recent bounce came from news that U.S. regulators will allow it to resume shipments of its H20 GPU to China. This GPU is a custom variant designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions. The update alleviates fears of a long-term revenue hit from China, which could have exceeded $8 billion annually. Following this news, Nvidia shares spiked and found sustained buying interest around the $165–$170 range.

Meanwhile, Nvidia has surpassed the 4 trillion dollar market cap level, becoming the second-most valuable company in the world, briefly overtaking Apple. This milestone has kept Nvidia in the spotlight for institutional investors and index trackers. AI demand remains strong, with cloud providers and enterprise customers continuing to invest heavily in Nvidia’s ecosystem of GPUs, CUDA software, and networking hardware.

Nvidia primed for upside breakout above $175

The technical and fundamental picture suggests a bullish bias for Nvidia in the near term. The most probable scenario is a breakout above the $175 resistance level, which could trigger a rally toward $180, and possibly extend to $185 over the next 2 to 4 weeks. This breakout scenario carries an estimated 60 percent probability, supported by the recent golden cross, stable RSI, and favorable macro environment.

A base-case scenario sees continued consolidation between $165 and $175, with traders waiting for further clarity on export conditions, earnings guidance, or broader tech sentiment. This neutral outcome, with a 30 percent likelihood, reflects the current pause in volume and sideways MACD trend.

CEO Jensen Huang sold around 225,000 Nvidia shares worth $37 million on July 16 under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan approved in March. While not unusual, insider sales at elevated valuations can temper short-term bullish sentiment.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.