Tesla stock gains 3.1% as Samsung chip deal boosts AI strategy

Highlights

- Tesla surged 3.1% after securing a long-term AI chip production deal with Samsung, shifting manufacturing to the U.S.

- The stock is testing key resistance at $330, with strong momentum above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

- Analysts remain divided as long-term AI ambitions clash with near-term earnings concerns.

Tesla (TSLA) is currently in a short-term bullish phase, with the price breaking above its 50-day moving average near $320 and comfortably trading above the 200-day average around $316. These levels now act as immediate support. The current chart structure suggests that Tesla has transitioned out of a consolidation phase that began in late June. Resistance is now clearly defined at $330, a level it tested intraday but failed to close above. A clean breakout beyond $330 could expose TSLA to the next upside targets at $340 and potentially $350 in the near term.

Momentum indicators also show strength: the RSI is approaching overbought territory near 68, but not yet in a reversal zone. MACD signals remain bullish, and the recent bullish crossover continues to support further upside. However, should the stock fail to hold the $320 support, there’s risk of a correction back toward $300, where TSLA previously consolidated for much of early July. The $300 level is not only psychologically important but also aligned with analyst EPS downgrades and cautious sentiment regarding Tesla’s margin compression.

Tesla stock price dynamics (May 2025 - July 2025). Source: TradingView

Trading volumes remain elevated with over 112 million shares changing hands, reflecting heightened institutional interest. The stock opened at $317.67, touched an intraday high of $330.44, and established a low of $316.06, highlighting increased volatility following the announcement.

Market context and fundamental drivers

Tesla’s rally comes in the wake of a confirmed multi-billion dollar semiconductor partnership with Samsung. Under the deal, Samsung will manufacture Tesla’s next-generation AI6 chips at its upcoming Taylor, Texas facility, with operations expected to begin in 2026. This shift marks a strategic move away from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Tesla’s current partner for AI5 chip production. Elon Musk’s direct involvement in the design and optimization process has also been cited as a vote of confidence in Samsung’s future foundry capabilities. Samsung’s own stock rose sharply following the news, gaining over $20 billion in market capitalization.

This development addresses multiple concerns around Tesla’s supply chain resiliency and geopolitical risk. By shifting AI chip manufacturing to the U.S., Tesla reduces exposure to East Asian supply disruptions and leverages the Inflation Reduction Act’s domestic production incentives. This announcement comes at a time when the broader market has been encouraged by macro news, including a U.S.–EU agreement to impose joint tariffs on Chinese EVs and components. Tesla, as the dominant U.S. EV manufacturer, is expected to benefit from this trade policy shift, boosting investor confidence.

However, analysts remain split. Daiwa Capital’s Jairam Nathan downgraded Tesla’s 2025 earnings forecast, citing regulatory risk and uncertain profitability from newer projects like Dojo and Optimus. Musk recently reiterated his bold long-term vision, claiming Tesla could eventually generate $30 trillion in annual revenue from AI-driven robotics. While this statement has captured headlines, institutional investors are more focused on tangible near-term earnings growth, gross margin stability, and FSD monetization.

Price forecast and outlook

Looking ahead, Tesla is trading in a critical technical zone between $320 and $330. If the stock can hold above $320 and close decisively above $330 in the coming sessions, it would likely confirm a breakout, paving the way toward $340 and possibly $350 over the next 7–10 trading days. This scenario is supported by strong momentum, institutional buying, and ongoing positive sentiment surrounding Tesla’s AI initiatives.

On the downside, failure to maintain the $320 level could invite selling pressure, with a likely test of the $300 support area. A break below $300 would signal a bearish shift, possibly sending TSLA toward $280. For now, the technicals and news flow favor the bulls, but the $330 resistance is a pivotal hurdle that must be cleared to sustain further gains. Investors should monitor volume and closing strength closely in the coming sessions.

Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, purchased over 143,000 Tesla shares post-earnings, reinforcing confidence in Tesla's autonomous and robotaxi vision. However, broader institutional sentiment is turning cautious, with declining investor risk tolerance.

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