Gold price prediction: XAU maintains $3,360 level amid policy and tariff watch

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Highlights

- Gold trades near $3,360 after mixed U.S. CPI data supports Fed cut expectations.

- Price remains inside a maturing symmetrical triangle with bullish EMA alignment.

- Break above $3,450 could target $3,500–$3,650, while $3,332 is key near-term support.

The mixed inflation profile kept expectations alive for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, lending support to carry-insensitive assets such as bullion. The upcoming U.S. producer price index, weekly jobless claims, and retail sales figures now take center stage for confirmation of the disinflation narrative. In parallel, a trade policy twist has drawn market attention.

Gold price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The White House confirmed that gold would not face a tariff, but a recent Customs and Border Protection classification placed certain bars under a tariff code. For now, traders are treating the discrepancy as noise, focusing instead on the monetary policy path and real yields.

Technical structure points to coiled energy

On the daily chart, gold remains confined within a mature symmetrical triangle that has directed price action since April. The upper boundary, defined by a sequence of lower highs, rests between $3,420 and $3,450. The base, rising from the spring lows, now anchors just above the mid-$3,200s. Price is currently pressing the triangle’s centerline with a mild upward tilt, reflecting a neutral-to-constructive bias as the apex approaches later this month.Spot prices have reclaimed the 20-day exponential moving average at $3,355.428 and hold above the 50-day EMA at $3,332.967. The 100-day EMA at $3,249.725 and the 200-day EMA at $3,061.156 remain intact and rising, underscoring a longer-term uptrend. This four-tier EMA alignment favors buying dips while price remains above the 20- and 50-day averages.

Momentum readings offer room for further upside. The daily RSI is at 51.27, with its signal line at 50.44. Historical patterns over the past three months show that dips toward 40 have coincided with tests of the triangle’s base, while pushes toward 60 have accompanied rallies into the upper boundary. The current 51–55 zone often serves as a pivot for momentum expansion, making the next two sessions pivotal in deciding whether bulls can mount a breakout attempt.

Levels and scenarios to watch

XAU’s immediate support sits at the 20-day EMA, followed by the 50-day EMA. A daily close beneath the 50-day EMA would risk a slide toward the triangle base in the $3,300–$3,315 area, then the 100-day EMA at $3,249.725. Below that, the $3,200 handle becomes critical, with the 200-day EMA offering the last significant trend anchor at $3,061.156.

On the upside, resistance clusters at $3,380–$3,400, with the triangle cap at $3,420–$3,450 representing the key breakout zone. A decisive close above that shelf would resolve the pattern higher, placing $3,500 back into view. Pattern projection math from the triangle’s widest section suggests potential upside toward $3,600–$3,650 on extension, with $3,500 and $3,540 as intermediate waypoints.Fundamental catalysts could accelerate either direction. A benign PPI print and steady jobless claims would bolster the case for a September rate cut and keep real yields in check, typically supportive for bullion. Conversely, a hotter PPI or confirmed tariff implications could pressure gold by pushing yields higher and testing key supports.

Until a clear breakout occurs, traders are likely to respect the established range, leaning on the higher-low structure for bullish setups while keeping risk tight beneath the 50-day EMA. Breakout traders may look for a close above $3,450 with an RSI push through 55–60 for confirmation. Sellers will require a daily close below the 50-day to target the triangle base and a loss of the 100-day to consider a medium-term trend reversal.

In earlier coverage, we highlighted the maturing symmetrical triangle as the dominant technical feature, with the 20- and 50-day EMAs acting as short-term balance points. Since then, gold has respected the rising base and reclaimed its short-term moving averages, reinforcing the neutral-to-constructive setup. The current compression phase into the apex suggests that the next data-driven impulse could determine whether gold resolves toward $3,500–$3,650 or rotates back toward the low $3,200s.

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