Gold price prediction: XAU holds near $3,355 as markets weigh Fed cuts

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Gold prices steady near $3,355

Highlights

- Gold holds near $3,355 as markets price in September Fed rate cuts

- Geopolitical risks from Trump–Putin meeting add safe-haven appeal

- The technical setup shows consolidation within symmetrical triangle pattern

Signs of a cooling labor market have further reinforced market bets on a September rate cut, with most traders expecting a 25 basis point reduction and some positioning for a more aggressive 50 basis point move.

XAU price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s public support for multiple cuts, beginning with a half-point, has strengthened the dovish narrative, providing an additional layer of support for the precious metal. Lower rates typically weigh on the dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making it more attractive to institutional investors seeking portfolio hedges.

Fed policy outlook and macro drivers

Market positioning ahead of the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting remains focused on the scale of potential easing. A 25 basis point cut is the consensus, but weak labor market data has encouraged some to anticipate a larger 50 basis point move. Historically, gold has performed strongly during sustained rate-cut cycles, as declining yields and a softer dollar drive inflows into safe-haven assets.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is trading near multi-week lows, further supporting gold’s appeal as a defensive allocation. The dovish bias from the Fed, if confirmed, could extend the recent rally, particularly if macroeconomic data continues to signal slowing growth. For institutional investors, the combination of lower yields and global uncertainty reinforces gold’s role as a core hedge against both market volatility and policy risk.

Geopolitical backdrop and market sentiment

Political developments are adding to gold’s underlying support. The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has introduced additional uncertainty into the global outlook. Trump’s warning of “very severe consequences” if Russia refuses to end the war in Ukraine raises the potential for new sanctions or restrictions, particularly targeting Russian oil exports.

Such measures could trigger commodity market disruptions and ripple effects across global trade flows. In these scenarios, gold often sees increased demand as a store of value, with investors seeking protection against both geopolitical escalation and potential supply shocks in key commodities.

Technical structure and price levels

From a technical perspective, XAU’s daily chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern, with converging support and resistance trendlines between $3,100 and $3,500. The price is trading in the upper half of this formation, suggesting a market in consolidation mode after strong gains earlier in the year.

Immediate resistance is located near $3,374, while initial support lies at $3,333 and $3,251, corresponding to the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. A decisive breakout above $3,374 could pave the way for a move toward the $3,500 psychological level. On the downside, a break below $3,250 would bring the $3,100 base into focus, an area that has held firm during prior sell-offs.

The Relative Strength Index sits around 50–51, indicating balanced momentum with neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This neutral positioning allows flexibility for the next significant move, which is likely to be driven by incoming macroeconomic and political developments.

Market outlook

Gold’s near-term trajectory hinges on the interplay between monetary policy signals and geopolitical events. A larger-than-expected Fed cut in September, coupled with heightened geopolitical tensions, could act as a dual catalyst for a breakout beyond $3,500. Conversely, stronger economic data that reduces the urgency for policy easing could keep prices contained within the current range.

For now, the technical and fundamental backdrop points to a market preparing for a decisive move. The symmetrical triangle is nearing its apex, increasing the likelihood of a breakout in the coming weeks. Traders are closely watching the $3,374 and $3,250 levels as critical inflection points.

In our earlier coverage, we highlighted the $3,500 level as a pivotal upside target if macro and geopolitical factors aligned in gold’s favor. The market remains on that path, with price consolidating within a well-defined technical pattern. A confirmed breakout above $3,374 could accelerate momentum toward this target, while sustained demand above $3,250 should maintain the broader bullish structure.

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