EUR/USD price steadies near $1.164 as traders await Powell at Jackson Hole

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EUR/USD price analysis

Highlights

- EUR/USD trades near 1.164, below key moving averages after breaking a rising channel.

- Traders eye Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with markets pricing an 85% chance of a September Fed cut.

- Key pivot sits at 1.1627–1.1636, with 1.1590 as next support if breakdown extends.

Markets also tracked geopolitical developments, with U.S. President Donald Trump signaling progress on efforts to broker an Ukraine peace summit. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte described Trump’s meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as “very successful,” and Trump confirmed he had reached out to Russian President Vladimir Putin to propose a trilateral summit. For global markets, any signal of de-escalation could ease risk aversion and provide support to the euro.

Technical picture: Break from rising channel

On the four-hour chart, EUR/USD has slipped out of a rising channel that guided the recovery from the early August low near 1.1393. Last week’s peak under 1.1720 marked the exhaustion point of the move, with subsequent price action showing lower highs and a clean break of the channel floor.The moving-average cluster now acts as layered resistance. The 20-EMA is near 1.1661, the 50-EMA at 1.1656, and the 100-EMA at 1.1645. All sit above current price, signaling that sellers remain in control of the short-term structure. The 200-EMA at 1.1627 lines up with the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement at 1.1636, forming a pivotal zone that bulls must defend to preserve the broader uptrend.

EUR/USD price forecast (Source: TradingView)

Below 1.1630, the next support stands at 1.1590, the 50 percent retracement of the recent swing. A deeper decline would target 1.1543, the 38.2 percent level, where buyers may attempt to regain momentum. On the topside, the 1.1700–1.1720 band serves as the first supply zone, with 1.1780 as a stretch target if risk appetite improves.

Policy and geopolitical drivers

While the European Central Bank remains firmly on hold, with September rate expectations anchored at no change, the U.S. side of the equation is more fluid. Traders currently price in an 85 percent probability of a 25 bp cut at the Sept. 16–17 FOMC meeting, making Powell’s Jackson Hole comments pivotal in shaping the dollar’s near-term direction.

A dovish Powell, signaling comfort with early or sequential cuts, would likely weaken the dollar and open space for EUR/USD to recover above 1.1700. Conversely, if Powell emphasizes patience and data dependency, the greenback could remain supported, pressing the pair toward 1.1590.Geopolitics remain another swing factor. Any progress in organizing a Zelenskiy-Putin summit would reinforce risk appetite, typically lifting cyclical currencies like the euro. Conversely, stalled diplomacy or renewed escalation could reintroduce risk aversion and strengthen demand for the dollar.

Short-term outlook: Cautious consolidation

Into the Jackson Hole symposium, the base case is contained consolidation between 1.1590 and 1.1700, with a slight bearish tilt while price remains under 1.1665. That level, which aligns with the broken channel underside and the 20- and 50-EMAs, is now the signal to switch back to a constructive bias.For traders, the 1.1627–1.1636 band is the key pivot. Holding it would support a reflex bounce toward 1.1665, while a clean break below exposes 1.1590. Until Powell speaks, rallies are likely to be faded into EMA resistance, and dips carefully managed near retracement levels.

Earlier in our analysis, we highlighted that the July-to-August rebound in EUR/USD carried the hallmarks of a corrective rally within a broader cautious trend. The pair’s difficulty in sustaining levels above 1.1700 and repeated reliance on Fibonacci supports underscored fragile momentum. Those dynamics remain in place today, with traders respecting well-defined technical pivots as they await macro catalysts.

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