Gold price prediction: XAU holds near $3,337 as markets await Powell at Jackson Hole

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Gold price outlook

Highlights

- Gold trades near $3,337, close to a three-week low, ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.

- Technical structure shows a symmetrical triangle with key support at $3,332 and resistance at $3,345.

- Fed policy remains pivotal, with futures pricing in two cuts in 2025, first possible in September.

Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that ground troops would not be deployed in Ukraine, along with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s openness to peace talks, helped reduce risk premiums tied to the conflict. Russia’s position remains uncertain, but the softer rhetoric eased immediate safe-haven bids and reinforced the dollar’s appeal ahead of potential policy shifts from the Fed.

Technical picture points to consolidation

On the daily chart, gold price remains locked inside a symmetrical triangle that has been developing since April. Price action has compressed between converging support and resistance lines, signaling an imminent breakout. The lower boundary aligns with the 50-day EMA at $3,332, while the 100-day EMA at $3,257 provides the next major support. The 200-day EMA at $3,074 is the key safeguard of the broader uptrend.

XAU price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Overhead, the 20-day EMA at $3,345 represents the first resistance line, with further supply expected near $3,400. A close above $3,400 would re-open the path to April’s peak at $3,540, while a breakdown below $3,330 risks exposing $3,257 and potentially the $3,100 zone.

Momentum indicators underline the indecisive tone. The RSI hovers near 51, consistent with consolidation. Past rebounds this year occurred when RSI dipped toward the mid-40s, while peaks near 70 signaled local tops. The current midline reading suggests traders are waiting for a clear trigger, which is expected from Powell’s policy guidance.

Monetary policy in focus

Investor psychology is cautious but not bearish. Fed funds futures continue to price in two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, with the first anticipated in September. If Powell acknowledges softer inflation trends and signals comfort with easing, the dollar could weaken, pushing gold back toward $3,450–$3,500. A more measured or hawkish stance would likely strengthen the dollar and pressure bullion toward $3,250 or lower.

Beyond monetary policy, macro dynamics still support gold’s medium-term case. Central bank purchases remain steady, especially from emerging markets seeking diversification. Concerns about slowing global growth and equity volatility also underpin demand. While peace talk headlines have trimmed geopolitical premiums, the risk of setbacks ensures that gold’s safe-haven role remains intact.

Outlook and positioning

The $3,330–$3,345 zone is the immediate pivot. A close above $3,345 would favor an upside move toward $3,400 and eventually $3,450. Failure to hold above $3,330 could invite a retest of $3,257, where medium-term buyers may attempt defense. The symmetrical triangle pattern suggests resolution is near, with volatility expected to expand in the next one to two weeks.

For the medium term, the bullish case remains intact while gold trades above $3,100. The near-term path depends on Powell’s tone and whether the Fed leans dovish or signals patience. Traders should prepare for volatility around both Powell’s speech and the upcoming FOMC minutes, as both have the power to reset rate expectations and drive the dollar-gold dynamic.

In earlier coverage, we highlighted that gold was entering a compression phase within a triangle pattern, with Fed communication likely to act as the breakout catalyst. That view remains intact: the market continues to coil inside narrowing ranges, with Jackson Hole now the decisive event. A dovish signal could restore momentum and send prices toward $3,500, while a hawkish tilt risks a correction into the $3,200s.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.