LVMH stock slips below €485 as earnings miss and margin narrows

Highlights

- LVMH stock is down 23% in 2025, trading just above key support at €485 after missing H1 earnings estimates.

- The Wines & Spirits segment remains a drag, but strong operating margins and solid cash flow offer downside protection.

- Analysts maintain a moderate buy rating with a €520 average price target, suggesting limited but stable upside.

LVMH is trading below its 200-day simple moving average, currently near €510, signaling longer-term bearish sentiment. However, the stock has reclaimed short-term moving averages, such as the 20- and 50-day lines, which are converging around €485–€490, indicating potential for stabilization.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 52, in neutral territory, suggesting that LVMH is neither oversold nor overbought. MACD momentum remains slightly negative but is showing early signs of convergence, hinting at a potential trend reversal if buying volume increases. Pivot points for the week place resistance at €491.30 and €497.80, with support forming at €481.25 and €474.60. A daily close below €474 would be technically bearish, opening downside risk to €460 and possibly €450.

LVMH stock price dynamics (June 2025 - August 2025). Source: TradingView

Volume has declined over the last 10 sessions, implying investor caution. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, which often precedes a breakout. Directional Movement Index (DMI) indicates low trend strength, with a falling ADX below 20. In sum, LVMH’s technical setup suggests that the stock is trying to consolidate above support, but a break in either direction could trigger a sharp move.

Luxury demand cools as Wines & Spirits segment weighs on results

LVMH’s share price decline in 2025 reflects a combination of sector-wide luxury demand softening and underperformance in its Wines & Spirits division. For the first half of 2025, LVMH reported revenues of €40 billion, a 3% organic decline, while operating profit fell 15% to €9 billion. Despite these headline declines, the company maintained a strong operating margin of 22.6%, which remains 150 basis points higher than pre-COVID 2019 levels. Free cash flow remained healthy at €4 billion, and net debt was stable at €15.2 billion.

The drag came primarily from Moët Hennessy and other Wines & Spirits assets, which experienced weaker sales and higher input costs. Fashion & Leather Goods, LVMH’s largest and most profitable division, continued to perform solidly, supported by flagship brands like Louis Vuitton and Dior. Nevertheless, lower sales in China and slower tourist flows in Europe have created near-term revenue pressure.

Investor sentiment also took a hit following the latest earnings release. LVMH missed EPS estimates, reporting €2.687 per share against consensus expectations of €2.782. The stock fell over 3% in the session following the release. Still, analysts remain moderately bullish. LVMH’s ADR (LVMUY) is rated as a "Moderate Buy" with an average 12-month price target of $126.50 (approx. €520), representing nearly 7% upside from current levels. The highest forecast points to €535, while the lowest estimate sits near €470.

€475 crucial to bullish recovery

LVMH’s near-term outlook will largely depend on whether it can defend the €475–€480 support band and regain technical strength above the 200-day moving average at €510. A sustained break above that level would invalidate the current downtrend and shift momentum back toward bulls.

In a base-case scenario, assuming stable global demand and no further deterioration in Wines & Spirits, LVMH could climb gradually toward €500–€510 over the next 1–2 months. This would align with historical retracements and fits within analyst consensus. In a bullish breakout, strong Q3 sales or positive updates on China demand could push the stock to €525–€535 by year-end. A return to pre-2025 highs above €560 is unlikely without a strong macro tailwind.

LVMH’s share price decline reflects broader weakness across the luxury sector, driven by falling demand in Asia and North America. The downturn is particularly severe in the Wines & Spirits segment, as high inflation and reduced discretionary spending weigh on sales.

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