Silver price prediction: XAG/USD dip buying holds near $41 ahead of NFP data release

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Sholanke Dele

05.09.2025

Silver price prediction: XAG/USD dip buying holds near $41 ahead of NFP data release — Silver traders await U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report

Silver [XAG/USD] has paused its steady bullish advance as traders lock in profits ahead of a critical macroeconomic release.

The metal had risen for five consecutive days, pushing decisively through the $40 psychological mark to a high of $41.47 before Thursday’s session produced a bearish daily close at $40.65. That pullback reflected caution as market participants prepared for the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report due later today, a data point known for driving volatility across precious metals and the U.S. dollar.

- Silver holds above $40 as traders position for U.S. jobs data.

- Dip buying and rising volume confirm bullish resilience ahead of NFP release.

- Safe haven demand and Fed rate cut bets sustain silver’s momentum.

Despite Thursday’s dip, silver is showing resilience on Friday. The Asian session opened to steady buying interest, and momentum carried into Europe, lifting the price to an intraday high of $40.92. At this stage, the metal holds a daily gain of over 0.5%. Importantly, dip buying from Thursday’s low at $40.41 has been accompanied by rising volume on the four-hour chart. This suggests the retracement has encouraged renewed demand, a constructive sign ahead of the employment report.

Silver price dynamics (August - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview

The macro backdrop remains supportive. Market consensus continues to build around expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle later this month. Such an outcome weakens the U.S. dollar’s appeal, providing a tailwind to silver, which does not yield interest. At the same time, ongoing trade-related uncertainty has maintained safe-haven flows into precious metals, helping silver to stay on course for its third straight week of gains. Week to date, the metal has already advanced around 3%, setting the stage for the NFP release to determine whether the rally extends or consolidates.

Silver eyes possible move toward $42 if NFP data disappoints

Expectations for today’s employment report center on a forecast of 75,000 new jobs, slightly above the previous print of 73,000. The interpretation is straightforward. A reading stronger than forecast would strengthen the Dollar and pressure silver, potentially triggering a pullback. In that scenario, the $40 level is expected to act as a floor, cushioning any triggered decline. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data would reinforce expectations of rate cuts, supporting silver and possibly driving an extension toward the $42 mark.

Silver’s technical setup and macro narrative are closely aligned. Rising demand on dips, ongoing expectations of a looser Fed policy, and safe haven inflows give the metal a bullish bias. The outcome of the NFP report will decide whether silver consolidates its recent gains or accelerates toward fresh highs, but either way, the $40 threshold has now become a critical pivot for near-term price action.

Silver trades near $38.65 after an early rebound, with U.S. data set to shape direction. Silver price outlook depends on holding the 100 EMA support on 1hr chart.

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