Nasdaq Composite forecast 2026: Investors eye 24,000 amid Fed easing and earnings report

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Sholanke Dele

17.10.2025

Nasdaq Composite forecast 2026: Investors eye 24,000 amid Fed easing and earnings report — Nasdaq recovers from premarket slump

The Nasdaq Composite Index is struggling to hold its footing after Thursday’s sharp reversal from a four-day high at 22,885.

The index, which had been trading inside a rising converging wedge pattern for most of the week, broke below its supportive trendline on Thursday as sellers regained control. The break led to a drop toward 22,400 and wiped out the prior day’s gains, triggering a bearish crossover between the 20 and 100 EMAs on the 4-hour chart.

- Nasdaq falls toward 22,400 after wedge breakdown triggers broad selling across key sectors.

- Bearish 20/100 EMA crossover confirms momentum loss following earlier AI-led rally correction.

- Trump–Xi meeting optimism provides brief relief, but resistance at 50 EMA caps rebound.

Friday, October 17, opened under continued pressure. Nasdaq futures that track the benchmark fell 1.5% early in the premarket session to a three-day low before dip buyers stepped in to recover the losses. Futures prices have since flattened, showing no net gain or loss. However, as seen on the 1-hour chart, the recovery has stalled at the opening price, where technical resistance from the 50 EMA is now capping the upside. A decisive breakout above this intraday resistance could shift momentum higher and allow the Nasdaq to post gains for the day.

Nasdaq price dynamic (Sept - Oct 2025). Source: Tradingview

The market’s earlier weakness was tied to a sector-wide selloff in U.S. financials, which reignited worries about the health of regional banks and broader credit conditions. JPMorgan lost 0.4%, Morgan Stanley slipped 0.7%, and Bank of America and Citigroup dropped 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. The selling pressure spread across the broader market, amplifying the downside in the Nasdaq, particularly as investors locked in profits from the earlier AI-led rally.

Trump–Xi meeting hopes ease tariff tension, helping Nasdaq futures recover losses

Investor sentiment began to stabilise later in the premarket session following remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump confirming that his meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping would go ahead as planned. This eased some of the concerns over escalating tariff tensions between the two largest economies. Renewed hope for trade progress helped spark the brief rebound seen in futures, though technical resistance levels suggest momentum could still struggle to build through the session.

If buying interest strengthens and the Nasdaq breaks above the 1-hour 50 EMA, the index may recover toward the 22,800 region. In contrast, failure to hold current levels could lead to another retracement toward 22,000, the key 4-hour EMA support. In the broader outlook, optimism over the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle continues to lend a supportive tone, and positive quarterly results from major technology firms could push the Nasdaq toward the 24,000 mark before 2026, provided trade tensions do not resurface as a headwind.

Recently, we discussed the Nasdaq Composite rebounding 2.2% from the 22,200 support after last week’s dip. Renewed U.S.–China trade tensions continue to cap upside momentum and RSI signalled fading strength.

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