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Crypto bear markets tend to reach the 2-year simple moving average divided by two, according to Joao Wedson. He explains that this specific level, known as the 2Y SMA/2, has consistently defined price bottoms for many cryptocurrencies based on historical analysis.
Wedson points out that the 2-year moving average is widely used by analysts globally, but dividing it by two yields a threshold that has proven especially useful for identifying market lows.
Wedson’s emphasis on the 2Y SMA/2 threshold builds upon his previous examinations of crypto market cycles, including his analysis of how Bitcoin has navigated 16 distinct bear markets over as many years. His scrutiny of macroeconomic factors, such as the potential decoupling between global M2 liquidity and Bitcoin cycles, further contextualizes the dynamics underlying these pivotal market lows.