Stock picking using LLMs lacks market edge, Tren Griffin argues

Stock picking using LLMs lacks market edge, Tren Griffin argues
LLM stock picking is closet indexing

Tren Griffin, industry influencer, comments that using a large language model (LLM) to pick stocks equates to closet indexing for those who do not subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis.

He highlights the concept of 'variant perception' or 'edge,' citing Michael Mauboussin, noting that true differentiation comes from having a substantiated view that diverges from the market consensus.

Griffin previously noted that 79% of active large-cap U.S. equity funds underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, one of the industry's worst years in recent history (article). In a separate commentary, he questioned Spirit Airlines' merger prospects with JetBlue, as well as the carrier's debt and lack of pricing power (article). His recent remarks extend a pattern of highlighting areas where market consensus may obscure individual edge.

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