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Mike McGlone points out that U.S. breakeven costs for key commodities are approaching $55 a barrel for WTI crude oil and roughly $4 a bushel for corn.
He adds that U.S. natural gas may continue to lead trends in 2026, similar to its movement in 2023, with commodities tending to align with break-even production costs.
Earlier this year, McGlone said hedge funds increased long positions in soybeans and corn futures as $5 resistance levels for corn became prominent, according to a previous report. He also noted that the Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex may have peaked in 2026 near 500, raising the possibility of deflationary pressures in energy markets, as reported in a separate analysis. His latest comments align with a focus on production costs for commodities.