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Robin Brooks forecasts Brent oil prices approaching $85, which he believes will bring the average U.S. gasoline price down to $4.0 per gallon.
He notes that markets are reaching these targets and suggests that, as in past conflicts, normalization should follow soon.
Brooks previously analyzed how a peace deal could lower Brent's risk premium and shift oil prices toward $85 with U.S. gas at $4, according to a recent note here. He has also argued that the latest spike in oil prices came without new developments since the Strait closure, marking a third major panic this cycle here. These assessments provide context for Brooks’s current outlook.