Nasdaq 100: Negative technical momentum caps 1.93% rise despite buying activity

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Nasdaq 100 up 1.93% today at $24,359

Highlights

Nasdaq proposed an SEC rule change to amend its Designated Liquidity Provider and Market Quality Supporter programs, prompting regulatory review and public comment.
This regulatory development is currently the principal factor shaping the Nasdaq 100’s underlying exchange structure and operational framework.
The Nasdaq 100 trades below major moving averages and is technically oversold, with a high likelihood of sideways-to-bearish movement between 24,150 and 24,650 over the next five days.

Regulatory filing reshapes sentiment as SEC reviews liquidity changes

On March 23, 2026, The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC filed a proposed rule change with the Securities and Exchange Commission to amend the Designated Liquidity Provider and Market Quality Supporter Programs in Equity 7, Section 114. The SEC has posted a notice of this filing and invited public comment. This regulatory development is currently the primary news impacting the Nasdaq 100's underlying exchange structure.

Oversold signals intensify as momentum diverges despite gap-up open

Momentum indicators remain negative, with the D1 MACD firmly in bearish territory and the ADX at 22.09 indicating a weak trend. The RSI at 35.11, along with CCI, Stoch RSI, and BBP, all point to oversold conditions and ongoing seller dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator reinforces the downside bias. The market opened with a gap up, and price is hovering near today's high, reflecting buying activity, but short- and longer-term daily signals still diverge as price bounces amid negative momentum.

Downside risk favored as short-term volatility bands narrow

The typical volatility band for the next 5 trading days is expected between 24,150 and 24,650. With less than a 20% probability of a price increase, a further decline is favored, while the baseline scenario sees the index stabilizing just above 24,000. A move above immediate resistance could open the path to 25,000, while a drop below 24,150 could lead to sharper declines toward lower weekly supports. Longer-term moving averages on the weekly chart remain structurally bullish; however, short-term technicals recommend a cautious stance until negative momentum or oversold conditions resolve.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the Nasdaq 100 consolidating near its 200-day average as downward momentum and oversold signals persist. He believes the recent regulatory filing by Nasdaq adds a layer of structural uncertainty, yet longer-term weekly trends remain intact. Short-term caution is warranted until momentum shifts or oversold conditions ease. Still, the constructive macro backdrop encourages a watchful, optimistic stance. "If the index can reclaim resistance and ride out current volatility, a move toward 25,000 points is well within reach."

Earlier, analysts noted that the Nasdaq 100 was experiencing sustained bearish momentum, with technical indicators and market sentiment pointing toward continued downside pressure. This outlook is reaffirmed as negative momentum persists despite a brief rally, making the reaction to the new regulatory filing and the index's ability to hold above 24,150 the key factors to watch in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: NDX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.