Oracle shares dip amid rising selling pressure

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Oracle slides 4.85% today to $166.05

Highlights

Oracle will cut 21,000 jobs and incur $1.8 billion in charges as it pivots toward AI and cloud infrastructure for FY2026.
Cloud operations now generate 51% of revenue, with AI-related backlog reaching a record $638 billion and Q4 revenue at $19.18 billion.
The stock is trading below key moving averages with notable downside momentum; next week’s range expected between $158.21 and $173.89, with a strong bearish bias.

Cloud revenue shift and AI backlog boost earnings amid persistent selling

Oracle Corporation revealed a significant restructuring plan for fiscal 2026, eliminating approximately 21,000 positions and incurring $1.8 billion in related charges as it reallocates focus toward artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure projects. The company's annual report emphasized the strategic shift, citing that 51% of revenue is now derived from cloud activities and noting record AI-related contracted backlog of $638 billion. Oracle also reported its highest-ever quarterly revenue at $19.18 billion in Q4 FY2026, accompanied by increased capital expenditures, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Oracle in a protracted structural downturn. He notes that the steep job cuts and heavy restructuring charges cast doubt on management’s control of cost and execution. The price persistently trades below all key moving averages, reinforcing technical vulnerability. Kharitonov highlights that momentum signals are broadly negative and the near-term floor at $158.21 is now a clear risk. He warns institutional confidence may fade given no catalyst for immediate recovery. "Investors should remain cautious — the risk of further downside is real until Oracle proves its AI shift delivers durable growth."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views Oracle’s strategic pivot as a key foundation for future growth. He emphasizes that increased cloud revenues and record AI contract backlog highlight robust demand and ongoing transformation. Karapetjanc notes that despite recent volatility, the shift toward next-generation technology creates powerful long-term opportunities. He identifies heightened capital expenditures as a positive signal of continued institutional investment. "Oracle’s fundamental outlook grows stronger — I see this as a compelling setup for the next bullish phase."

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, believes Oracle is caught between persistent selling and emerging oversold signals. He observes mixed momentum, with short-term indicators flagging an opportunity if price rebounds from the $158.21 support. Turakhiya sees sentiment driven by uncertainty over restructuring outcomes but notes traders may eye bounce setups within the projected range. "If the stock resists breaking support, I’d look for a sentiment-driven rally toward $173.89 in the coming sessions."

Bearish trend persists as moving averages and momentum tilt oversold

Oracle is trading below its 20-day ($204.33), 50-day ($189.03), and 200-day ($204.69) moving averages, indicating persistent pressure from sellers across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes. The nearest resistance is the near-term ceiling at $167.8, with the near-term floor at $158.21. The longer-term trend context remains bearish, as confirmed by the MA-50 vs MA-200 alignment. Momentum signals show a mixed picture: both MACD and Average Directional Index (ADX) point to a neutral trend and lack of strong directional conviction, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.82 signals a sell forecast and proximity to oversold territory. Stochastic RSI, Commodity Channel Index (CCI), and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) all confirm an oversold setup, with BBP at -9.35 reflecting clear dominance by sellers in intraday momentum. Persistent weakness after the open is in line with the bearish tilt across most momentum indicators, despite somewhat neutral MACD and ADX.

Earlier, analysts noted that Oracle’s extensive job cuts and multibillion-dollar restructuring underscored the company’s pivot toward AI-driven growth and renewed infrastructure investment. The current price setup reinforces this transformation, with a sustained break below $158.21 now representing a critical downside risk that could accelerate near-term selling pressure.

Source of Data: ORCL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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