Brent crude price forecast: $73.32 support in focus as XBR drops 2.83%

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Brent crude drops 2.83% to $74.7

Highlights

Brent crude prices have fully retraced their Iran-war gains, erasing the geopolitical premium that supported the market earlier.
Unwinding of war-driven risk hedges exposes Brent to renewed downside as supply concerns recede.
Technical outlook remains decisively bearish, with price breaking key support; next 2–3 day range seen at $73.32 to $76.08 and further declines likely.

Risk premium unwinds as war-driven hedges exit market

Brent crude prices have returned to levels not seen since before the Iran war began, according to CNBC. This marks a complete reversal of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported prices throughout the conflict period. As war-related hedges unwind, the asset faces renewed downward repricing pressures.

Bearish momentum persists below technical resistance zones

On the hourly chart, XBR is trading below the SMA-20 at $76.46 and SMA-50 at $77.35, while on the daily timeframe it remains well under the SMA-200 at $80.69. The Ichimoku Kijun at $76.67 serves as near-term resistance. Momentum indicators including the MACD (Sell) and ADX (Neutral) reflect weak underlying strength, with RSI at 34.9 (Sell), and Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP all indicating oversold intraday conditions. The Awesome Oscillator aligns with a bearish setup, while both oscillators and momentum confirm the dominance of sellers without visible bullish divergence.

Near-term downside favored as volatility bandwidth narrows

Over the next two to three trading days, XBR is expected to remain within a typical volatility band of $73.32 to $76.08. The scenario for further declines carries the highest likelihood, as negative momentum persists. A break above $76.67 could prompt a short-term rebound, while breaching $73.32 would reinforce continued downside pressure.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Brent crude now facing new conditions after the full reversal of the Iran war risk premium. He notes that persistent negative momentum and technical weakness could fuel near-term downside. The macro environment has shifted, removing geopolitical support. However, he remains positive on the longer-term macro perspective. “If Brent crude manages to recover above $76.67, I expect traders to look for tactical long entries as market sentiment stabilizes,” Karapetjanc says.

Previously it was reported that easing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz led to declining oil prices as supply disruption risks subsided. With Brent crude now decisively below major moving averages and momentum signals pointing to persistent selling, traders should monitor for a potential test of this year’s lows if downside pressure continues.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.