U.S. pushes higher copper tariffs on China drives Copper down

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Copper slides 1.88% to $6 today

Highlights

The U.S. is considering Section 232 tariffs on refined copper, potentially disrupting global trade flows and inventories.
Proposed higher U.S. tariffs on semi-finished copper products target China's supply chain dominance and aim to boost domestic output.
Copper trades below key technical resistance, with momentum and volatility indicators confirming significant short- and medium-term downside risk within a $5.85–$6.16 range.

Tariff threats and Fed policy stoke bearish copper sentiment

The U.S. Department of Commerce is preparing a report for President Donald Trump on potential tariffs affecting refined copper under the Section 232 national security review, with Goldinvest reporting that this action could directly influence global copper trade flows and inventories. U.S. efforts to further increase tariffs on semi-finished copper products aim to counter China's supply chain dominance and enhance domestic output, according to Scmp. In addition, Bloomberg reported that the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish stance and the resulting strengthening of the U.S. dollar have put additional downward pressure on global copper demand.

Sellers remain in control as technical momentum accelerates

On the H4 chart, HG/USD sits below the SMA-20 at $6.16 and the SMA-50 at $6.27, with price action holding above the daily SMA-200 at $5.84. Immediate technical resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun level at $6.21. Momentum studies show MACD and ADX both indicating strong selling activity, while the RSI is at 36.73 and the CCI also reflects a selling bias. The Stoch RSI shows an overbought signal, which diverges from other oscillators, and BBP confirms seller dominance intraday. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral at present.

Downside risk grows as consolidation dominates near-term outlook

For the next few sessions, HG is expected to trade within a volatility band from $5.85 to $6.15. Probability analysis favors a continued downward move, while an upward bounce appears unlikely barring a catalyst. The baseline scenario assumes consolidation within the defined corridor, with an upside breakout requiring a move above $6.21. A decisive drop below $5.85 would increase the risk of a deeper sell-off.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, notes that macro and regulatory headwinds are weighing on copper prices in the short term. He sees U.S. tariff discussions and a firmer dollar as key obstacles to immediate upside, but believes these challenges also create volatility and opportunity for disciplined traders. The analyst maintains a constructive outlook, provided prices remain above the $5.85 support. "If copper consolidates above $5.85 and regulatory clarity emerges, I expect sentiment to improve and price action to recover toward resistance."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper faced persistent short-term bearish momentum amid cautious market sentiment. The latest developments—ranging from potential U.S. tariffs under Section 232 to ongoing Federal Reserve hawkishness—strengthen this negative bias, making downside risk the primary scenario if copper breaks below the crucial $5.85 level in the near term.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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