Sugar price forecast: $13.52 support in focus as SB drops 2.7%

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Sugar drops 2.7% to $13.76 today

Highlights

India's sugar exports have dropped sharply due to El Nino-related production setbacks and increased domestic ethanol demand.
Reduced shipments from a former top supplier are tightening global sugar supply and impacting international trade flows.
Sugar prices face sustained bearish momentum, trading below major technical thresholds, with a projected range of $13.52–$13.96 and continued downside risk.

Export restrictions and crop shifts tighten global sugar supplies

According to Reuters, India, formerly the world's second-largest sugar exporter, currently has limited surplus available for export as El Nino conditions impact cane production and the increase in ethanol demand constrains output. This combination of weather-driven supply pressure and policy-driven changes in crop allocation actively reduces the volume of sugar available to the international market. The curbed exports from a major supplier tighten global supply conditions and weigh on the broader trade environment for sugar.

Oversold momentum persists as prices test key technical barriers

On the H4 chart, SB is trading below the MA-20 at $14.11 and MA-50 at $14.22, while on the daily timeframe, the price remains below the MA-200 at $14.57. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $14.06 and acts as immediate resistance. While the MACD is in Sell mode, ADX remains neutral. RSI registers a deeply oversold reading at 18.81; both CCI and Stoch RSI also signal strong oversold conditions, highlighting ongoing selling pressure. BBP points to continued seller dominance intraday, with the Awesome Oscillator posting a neutral signal. No significant bullish divergences are present across momentum or oscillator indicators.

Bearish continuation likely amid limited reversal probability

Over the coming days, the projected trading range for SB is $13.52 to $13.96, aligning with a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a reversal remains low, with a greater likelihood of continued downside if support fails, while a break above resistance near $14.06 would be required to shift momentum in favor of buyers.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Sugar (SB) trading under significant pressure as both technical and macro fundamentals reinforce the downside. He believes India’s export restrictions and adverse weather are limiting supply, but persistent negative momentum and oversold sentiment define the current landscape. Karapetjanc notes key resistance levels must be reclaimed before a bullish outlook is justified. “Until we see a clear shift above $14.06, sellers remain in control and near-term rallies look vulnerable,” he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent technical weakness and strong selling momentum were dominating the outlook for sugar. The latest decline to new lows, amid deepening oversold signals and tightening supply from India, underscores ongoing downside pressure—traders should closely monitor for any shift in momentum above resistance near $14.06 as a potential inflection point.

Source of Data: SB Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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