US Treasury OFAC move drives Zinc down 1.71 percent

Traders Union
All News
Commodities
Zinc drops 1.71% as supply grows

Highlights

The US has started easing Iran sanctions as part of a diplomatic agreement, improving prospects for regional zinc exports.
Increased zinc supply from the Middle East is likely to depress global prices and reshape short-term trade flows.
ZS/USD faces near-term bearish momentum with a 75% probability of further declines into the 3,360–3,516 trading range.

US sanctions easing boosts zinc supply as Middle East tensions ease

On June 22, 2026, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control began to relax US sanctions, marking the first phase of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding to resolve recent Middle Eastern hostilities, according to Sanctionsnews Bakermckenzie. The easing of sanctions is expected to improve trade flows and expand market access for zinc, enabling greater supply from the region. This development introduces additional near-term supply to the global market, exerting pressure on prices in the current trading environment.

Downside momentum dominates as ZS tests resistance below key averages

On the H4 chart, ZS is trading below the MA-20 at $3,548 and the MA-50 at $3,574, but remains above the daily MA-200 at $3,268. The Ichimoku Kijun level on the daily timeframe sits at $3,563, acting as immediate resistance. Short-term technical indicators show momentum signals to the downside: MACD is on Sell, RSI is at 35.36, CCI is on Sell, and BBP signals an oversold market, while both ADX and Stoch RSI are Neutral and AO is also Neutral. Sellers dominate intraday momentum as reflected by BBP.

Consolidation likely as breakout risks skew toward downside

Over the next 2–3 trading days, ZS is expected to trade within the $3,360 to $3,516 range, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability for an upward breakout stands at 25%, while downside continuation is more likely at 75%. The baseline scenario sees the price consolidating within this corridor, with a bullish scenario triggered by a break above resistance and a bearish scenario following a breach of support.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views the recent easing of US-Iran sanctions as a clear catalyst for additional zinc supply and downward price pressure. He notes that near-term technical momentum remains firmly negative, with ZS trading below key short- and medium-term averages while oversold signals persist. The analyst sees a higher probability of further declines within the defined $3,360 to $3,516 range unless resistance is reclaimed. "With short-term risks still skewed to the downside, I remain cautious until buyers retake control above $3,563."

Earlier, analysts noted that robust cross-border trade agreements and the easing of international barriers have played a significant role in supporting commodities markets and facilitating market access. The recent relaxation of U.S. sanctions under the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding adds a new supply-side dimension for zinc, heightening near-term downside risks and making support at the daily MA-200 a critical level for traders to monitor.

Source of Data: ZS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.