XRP: Technical weakness led to sideways price action near key support

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Xrp slides 0.77% today to $2.01

Highlights

Ripple received conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish Ripple National Trust Bank, enhancing regulated institutional access to XRP custody.
Hex Trust launched wrapped XRP (wXRP) using LayerZero’s OFT standard on Solana, amassing over $100 million in total value locked, and is expanding to Ethereum and Optimism for broader DeFi integration.
Cboe BZX began trading the 21Shares spot XRP ETF (TOXR) after SEC approval, attracting initial inflows approaching $1 billion and indicating strong institutional demand.

Regulatory approvals and DeFi integration fuel institutional XRP inflows

Ripple secured conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish the Ripple National Trust Bank, marking a significant regulatory milestone that could expand institutional access and regulated custody for XRP. Additionally, wrapped XRP (wXRP), issued by Hex Trust using LayerZero's OFT standard, debuted on Solana with over $100 million in total value locked and is expanding its reach to Ethereum and Optimism, aiming to enhance XRP integration in decentralized finance. The Cboe BZX exchange also began trading a new spot XRP ETF from 21Shares (TOXR) following SEC approval, with initial inflows nearing $1 billion, highlighting institutional interest.

Negative momentum and neutral oscillators reinforce intraday bearish bias

Momentum indicators remain negative, as shown by bearish MACD and ADX signals on both daily and weekly timeframes. RSI (41.74 on D1 and 39.93 on W1) points to weak momentum but does not indicate an extreme oversold or overbought state, while Stoch RSI is neutral on the daily and only modestly oversold in shorter periods. The Commodity Channel Index registers at -91, highlighting growing short-term downside risk, while BBP stands at -0.0196, confirming intraday seller dominance. Awesome Oscillator aligns with this bearish trend. There is no significant price gap between the previous close and today’s open, and the current price sits near the lower end of today’s trading range, reflecting low volatility and persistent pressure after the open. All key momentum and oscillator readings broadly reinforce the intraday bearish tone.

Downside risk elevated as price remains trapped below resistance

For the next five sessions, XRP is expected to trade between $2.01 and $2.11. The likelihood of continued price declines is very high (more than 80%), while the probability of a strong rebound is very low. The baseline scenario assumes price movement will remain sideways within this volatility band relative to current levels. A bullish shift would require a push above the $2.05 – $2.11 resistance area, while a break below $2.01 could trigger further downside toward lower support levels; overall, prevailing momentum favors further downside or consolidation over a sustainable recovery.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees XRP under near-term pressure with a clear bearish technical setup. However, he believes recent regulatory approvals and institutional participation signal strong longer-term potential for the asset. The analyst notes that momentum is still negative, but fundamental and sentiment changes could set the stage for a reversal once price stabilizes. "With institutional interest rising and key regulatory milestones achieved, I remain confident that XRP’s outlook is constructive once current consolidation resolves," says Karapetjanc.

Last time, analysts noted that XRP remained under persistent selling pressure as it traded below key moving averages across all timeframes, with bearish momentum indicators prevailing despite emerging oversold signals and moderate intraday stability. The probability of a reversal was seen as low — with strong downside risk expected — as short-term support was identified near $2.00 and resistance aligned with the Kijun level, while sideways consolidation was anticipated unless a breakout developed in either direction according to analysts monitoring prevailing market conditions.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.