+1.6% for Toncoin — bullish daily signal clashes with weak longer-term trend

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Toncoin rises 1.60% to $1.549 today

Highlights

CoinShares has launched a new Altcoins ETF providing exposure to Toncoin and other blockchain projects, targeting institutional adoption of blockchain infrastructure.
The ETF invests in exchange-traded products that track altcoin prices, offering indirect exposure without holding the underlying digital assets.
CoinShares' fund focus aligns with its outlook on blockchain infrastructure as a key area for institutional investment and growth.

ETF-driven institutional focus boosts Toncoin’s profile among altcoins

CoinShares has introduced a new Altcoins ETF that provides exposure to Toncoin among other blockchain projects. This ETF invests in exchange-traded products tracking altcoin prices, without holding the digital assets directly. As noted in CoinShares' outlook, the fund is focused on blockchain infrastructure projects aimed at institutional adoption.

Diverging momentum and overbought signals heighten pullback risk

Momentum signals are mixed for TON: the MACD on D1 reflects strong bearish momentum, while the ADX also confirms ongoing selling pressure. However, the daily Bull/Bear Power (BBP) registers a 'Strong Buy' reading, suggesting some buyer dominance. The RSI is neutral at 48.85, the Stochastic RSI is flagging overbought conditions, and CCI remains near neutral, underlining a divergence between overbought oscillators and weak trend momentum. With modest volatility and price trading near the top of its daily range, there is increased risk of a short-term pullback.

Limited upside seen as bearish technicals cap price range

The expected 5-day price range for TON is $1.45 to $1.65, based on recent price action and typical volatility, placing the current level near the middle of this band. The probability of a price increase is low (less than 20%), as key W1 technical signals like RSI, ADX, MACD, and the MA-50 stay bearish. The baseline scenario sees TON oscillating between $1.45 and $1.65, with a bullish move requiring a breakout above $1.65 resistance, while renewed bearish momentum could trigger a drop below the $1.45 support area.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Toncoin in a short-term holding pattern, with upside capped below key moving averages. He notes the addition of TON to CoinShares' Altcoin ETF may support institutional awareness, but technical momentum remains bearish. Signals are still defensive, with modest buyer strength offset by unresolved downtrends. "Until TON can close above $1.65, risk stays on the downside and I remain cautious."

Last time, analysts noted that Toncoin remains in a bearish trend, trading below key moving averages with daily MACD and ADX confirming persistent selling pressure, while RSI sits below 50 and Stoch RSI is overbought amid intraday consolidation. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.545–$1.561, with support near $1.45, and price action is expected to remain range-bound over the coming sessions.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.