Weekly forecast: Bitcoin outlook hinges on Fed signals after weekly decline

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Yaroslav Dmytrenko

24.01.2026

Weekly forecast: Bitcoin outlook hinges on Fed signals after weekly decline — ETF outflows and Fed meeting shape Bitcoin price expectations

Bitcoin’s decline of more than 6% over the past week to below the $90,000 level has triggered a rise in bearish sentiment and expectations of further downside. However, hopes for a rebound remain as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic risks ease. February is also traditionally a favorable month for BTC, which continues to support bullish sentiment among bitcoin holders.

Last week, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined outflow of $1.33 billion, while 30-day net inflows into exchange-traded funds turned negative. Investors’ reluctance to take risk was fueled by threats of a new trade war with EU countries over Greenland, as well as ongoing instability in other geopolitical hotspots.

Large Bitcoin holders have signaled readiness to sell. Significant attention was drawn to reports that GameStop moved 4,710 BTC from its reserves to Coinbase for sale, locking in a loss of $76 million.

By the end of the week, however, the news backdrop began to stabilize. Donald Trump stated that a solution regarding Greenland had been found, while hedge funds reduced Bitcoin short positions on CME futures from $444 million in August to $78 million by mid-January. Optimists view this 82% reduction as a potentially bullish signal, although it may also reflect a shift in trading strategy.

Fed signals in focus

The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for January 28. While no rate changes are expected, comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could significantly influence investors’ risk appetite and, consequently, Bitcoin’s price in either direction.

In addition, earnings reports from major technology companies, along with other economic events, may push investors toward or away from risk assets.

As a result, Bitcoin’s expected volatility will largely depend on the FOMC’s tone. If the messaging is dovish, BTC could attempt to test resistance levels between $92,500 and $94,500. A sustained move toward $95,000 would signal a return of bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin daily chart. Source: TradingView

Conversely, hawkish Fed statements could push Bitcoin below key support levels at $87,000–$88,000, with a move toward the broader demand zone of $83,000–$85,000.

The base scenario suggests Bitcoin will trade within the $88,000–$95,000 range, reflecting moderate institutional demand and consolidation until greater clarity emerges around the US economic outlook.

As we wrote, World Economic Forum 2026: Why cryptocurrencies are discussed alongside trade wars

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