Cardano price prediction: Further downside likely as ADA slips below key support

Traders Union
All News
Crypto News
Cardano drops 7.74% today to $0.33

Highlights

Large holders have accumulated Cardano while total value locked on its blockchain fell from 672 million ADA in October 2024 to 495 million ADA by year-end.
The Cardano-linked token Midnight (NIGHT) declined 41% over 30 days, and Charles Hoskinson signaled possible Cardano developments for announcement in February 2026.
ADA trades at $0.33 below all major moving averages, with persistent bearish momentum and a 5-day range outlook of $0.31–$0.36; probability of further declines remains high.

Whale accumulation contrasts with TVL drop and ecosystem token losses

Large holders have recently accumulated significant volumes of Cardano, with the Cardano blockchain's total value locked decreasing from 672 million ADA in October 2024 to 495 million ADA by year-end. The privacy-focused token Midnight (NIGHT) tied to the Cardano ecosystem has dropped 41% in value over 30 days. Additionally, founder Charles Hoskinson indicated potential developments for Cardano may be announced in February 2026, though no further details have been confirmed.

Momentum weakens further as bearish signals dominate across indicators

Momentum indicators show persistent bearishness, with the MACD on daily and weekly frames signaling downward momentum and the ADX confirming a weakening trend below the key 25 threshold. The RSI (44.5 D1, 34.5 W1) and Commodity Channel Index remain below neutral, suggesting no strong oversold response yet, while Stochastic RSI is neutral but edges toward lower bounds on lower timeframes. Bull/Bear Power points to dominant intraday seller control, a view supported by the Awesome Oscillator's negative bias.

Persistent downside risk as low reversal odds define short-term range

ADA has dropped 7.74% today without a notable opening gap, positioning near the daily low within a high volatility session and showing steady downside pressure since the open. Looking ahead, the expected range for ADA over the next 5 trading days is forecast at $0.31 – $0.36, preserving a corridor that reflects current volatility and ensures the price remains centered without breaching a ±20% band from the current level. The probability of an increase is very low (less than 20%), making further declines more likely given persistent “Sell” signals on all major weekly indicators and moving averages. A bullish scenario would require a move above the $0.36 – $0.385 resistance band, while a bearish case emerges if ADA breaks below $0.33, exposing it to potential declines toward $0.31 or lower if broader market selling accelerates.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union expert, sees Cardano’s outlook as clearly bearish. He notes all key moving averages and momentum indicators suggest persistent downside, while fundamental developments remain distant and sentiment is weak. Kharitonov believes that as long as ADA trades below the $0.36 – $0.385 resistance, sellers remain dominant and new lows are possible. "Unless $0.385 is reclaimed, I expect further weakness toward $0.31 and advise caution for now."

Last time, analysts noted that Cardano is exhibiting persistent bearish momentum, with the price trading near session lows and well below its major moving averages, while technical indicators including MACD, ADX, and deeply oversold oscillators signal ongoing seller dominance. Near-term trading is expected to remain volatile and rangebound below key resistance levels, with a high probability of further downside unless a decisive breakout above $0.348 and the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.383 occurs.

Source of Data: ADA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.