Avalanche price prediction: Can oversold technicals trigger relief? AVAX stays under pressure

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Avalanche drops 7.50% to $10.12 today

Highlights

BlackRock’s BUIDL fund launched directly on Avalanche in Q4 2025, catalyzing substantial growth in tokenized real-world asset activity on the blockchain.
Total value locked in tokenized RWAs on Avalanche surged nearly 950% in 2025, exceeding $1.3 billion, driven by new institutional product offerings.
AVAX trades at $10.12, displaying persistent downside below MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with strong sell signals and $9.50–$11.20 as the expected weekly range.

Institutional RWA inflows drive rapid expansion in Avalanche DeFi ecosystem

Avalanche saw a major boost in tokenized real-world asset (RWA) activity in Q4 2025, highlighted by BlackRock’s BUIDL fund launching directly on its blockchain. Institutional adoption expanded as a broader range of RWAs — including money market funds, private credit, government bonds, and real estate-linked products — were introduced on Avalanche. The total value locked in tokenized RWAs rose nearly 950% in 2025, surpassing $1.3 billion. Native DeFi value locked and daily transaction volume also increased markedly during this period.

Persistent sell momentum as oversold signals and resistance converge

Momentum remains weak, with both the MACD and ADX pointing to a continued sell bias and the Awesome Oscillator confirming the prevailing negative trend. The RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI all indicate oversold conditions, underlining strong seller dominance, as does the Bull/Bear Power indicator. The nearest dynamic resistance remains at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $12.81, while MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200 are also acting as resistance. Price is near immediate intraday lows, and all major momentum signals align with persistent downside pressure.

Sideways bias and subdued upside odds shape near-term AVAX outlook

For the coming week, AVAX is projected to trade in a volatility band relative to current levels, ranging from $9.50 to $11.20. The probability of a price increase is low, at less than 20%, making further declines more likely. The most probable scenario is sideways action between support near $10 and resistance at $11.20; a bullish break above $11.20 could target $12, while a bearish move below $10 could push price toward $9.50. The overall trend signals remain weak, supporting a cautious near-term outlook.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees persistent downside pressure for Avalanche as technical momentum remains weak. He believes the surge in tokenized RWA activity and institutional adoption in 2025 have set a constructive foundation for future growth. However, near-term sentiment is dominated by oversold signals and strong seller activity. Price is likely to stay range-bound between $9.50 and $11.20 without immediate bullish catalysts. "The recent institutional advances are promising, but for now patience is key — strong fundamentals will require time to translate into price recovery."

Previously it was reported that Avalanche is trading near session lows under sustained downward pressure, with the price below all major moving averages and maintaining a bearish technical setup confirmed by negative MACD and RSI signals. Support is identified at $10.50 and resistance at $12.88, with prevailing indicators and momentum suggesting limited likelihood of a near-term rebound.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.