Ethereum price prediction: Can new ERC-8004 standard spark a rebound? ETH trades near $2,090

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Ethereum gains 0.46% today to $2,091

Highlights

Ethereum's tradable supply has fallen to multi-year lows as whales withdraw and staking activity increases, signaling a shift toward DeFi and off-exchange custody.
Despite record daily transaction counts after the Fusaka upgrade, much of the activity was driven by address poisoning campaigns rather than genuine usage growth.
ETH trades at $2,091.15, well below all major moving averages with firm selling pressure; key levels include resistance at $2,575.34 (Ichimoku Kijun) and support near $1,963.94 (Hull MA).

Staking and DeFi growth outpaced by inorganic activity and L2 risks

Ethereum's tradable supply dropped to multi-year lows due to substantial whale withdrawals and a rise in off-exchange custody, reflecting a marked shift toward greater staking activity and increased DeFi participation. The network also recorded all-time high daily transaction counts after the Fusaka upgrade; however, much of this was spurred by mass address poisoning campaigns rather than genuine usage growth. Ongoing concerns emerged over the partial decentralization of Layer 2 solutions, while the recent introduction of the ERC-8004 standard has enabled decentralized AI agent operations and trustless commerce on the Ethereum mainnet.

Bearish momentum prevails as technical indicators turn deeply negative

Momentum remains decisively negative, with both MACD and ADX indicating prevailing bearish strength on the daily chart. The MACD is deeply negative, confirming downside control, while the ADX supports the trend’s persistence. Oscillator readings underline oversold market conditions: RSI is at 31.42, CCI at -87.45, and Bull/Bear Power shows strongly negative values. The price action for today displays moderate volatility, ranging between $2,055.11 and $2,102.82, with ETH currently near session highs, suggesting a technical bounce but no shift in overall bearish momentum. Key technical levels include resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun ($2,575.34) and support at the Hull Moving Average ($1,963.94).

Downside risk dominates as rebound hinges on key resistance break

For the coming week, the expected volatility band is $2,050 to $2,180. Short-term upside potential is limited, with less than a 20% probability of sustained gains, as sell signals are dominant across daily and weekly trend indicators. While oversold conditions could slow further declines and lead ETH to trade sideways within this range, a decisive move above the Ichimoku Kijun ($2,575) would be required to signal a possible rebound. A clear drop below $2,050 would likely trigger additional selling, as no substantial dynamic support is evident until much lower price levels.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Ethereum trapped in a pronounced downtrend with little evidence of sustained buying interest. He notes that bearish technical signals dominate, and oversold conditions are failing to attract strong demand. Despite some short-term volatility, the expert remains critical of the weak recovery attempts and partial decentralization risks. "Until Ethereum reclaims the Ichimoku Kijun at $2,575, my tactical bias stays defensive and I see no reason to expect a meaningful rebound."

Last time, analysts noted that Ethereum remains under strong bearish pressure, trading well below key moving averages with negative momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD signaling oversold conditions, and resistance holding above current levels. The short-term outlook points to limited rebound potential, with price likely to move sideways within a moderate volatility range unless breached to the downside.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.