CryptoQuant CEO predicts extended Bitcoin consolidation phase

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Ki Young Ju declares Bitcoin bear phase

Bitcoin enters bear phase as liquidity weakens

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has declared the current Bitcoin cycle a confirmed bear market, arguing that capital inflows are failing to offset sustained selling pressure. “Hundreds of billions of dollars have entered the market, yet the overall market capitalization has either stagnated or declined,” Ju told the publication Digital Asset. “That means selling pressure is overwhelming new capital.”

He outlined two potential recovery paths: either a drop toward Bitcoin’s realized price near $55,000 before a rebound, or prolonged consolidation in the $60,000–$70,000 range. In both scenarios, he stressed that a durable rally requires renewed demand from exchange-traded funds and over-the-counter desks, which have recently slowed.

Ju also warned that altcoins face even deeper structural weakness. “The era of a single narrative lifting the entire altcoin market is over,” Ki said, adding that sentiment damage could take considerable time to repair.

Regulatory shift: From technology to legal architecture

While crypto markets struggle, U.S. regulators are advancing a more formal framework for tokenized securities. The Securities and Exchange Commission has increasingly focused on “Recordkeeping Obligations” under the Exchange Act, emphasizing that tokenization must replicate existing legal safeguards in digital form.

The SEC distinguishes between issuer-led and third-party-led tokenization models, with further divisions between custodial and contractual structures. The central question is not technological efficiency but legal enforceability—who holds responsibility for rights, custody, and dispute resolution.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has likewise outlined requirements for tokenized collateral in derivatives markets, including eligibility, enforceability, custody controls, valuation standards, and reporting transparency.

DTCC pilot anchors blockchain to traditional infrastructure

A major milestone came on Dec. 11, 2025, when the SEC issued a no-action letter to DTCC subsidiary DTC for its tokenized securities pilot. The structure preserves DTC’s central ledger as the authoritative record, while blockchain functions as a transfer layer.

Through its LedgerScan observation system, on-chain activity is translated into official books and records. A “digital omnibus account” ensures that securities cannot circulate simultaneously in both traditional and tokenized forms, preventing duplication risk. Transfers are limited to pre-approved wallets under a permissioned framework aligned with ERC-3643 standards.

The model reflects a deliberate separation of innovation from systemic risk, positioning tokenization as a layered enhancement of existing infrastructure rather than a wholesale replacement.

Why it matters

Bitcoin’s bear cycle underscores the fragility of market-driven narratives without sustained liquidity. Meanwhile, U.S. regulators are constructing a legal framework that prioritizes enforceability, custody, and supervisory oversight over speed. The convergence of market stress and regulatory clarity suggests that the next phase of digital asset growth will depend less on hype and more on institutional-grade infrastructure and defined legal accountability.

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