Bitcoin price prediction: Sideways move ahead? BTC faces strong resistance at $75,300

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Bitcoin steady today near $67,850

Highlights

US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a fifth straight week of net outflows totaling $403.9 million, signaling declining institutional demand for BTC.
Large Bitcoin holders reduced their balances to the lowest levels since May 2025, while retail accumulation saw only a minor uptick amid persistent ETF outflows.
Technically, Bitcoin trades at $67,851.94, well below key moving averages, with resistance at $75,300 and a near-term price expectation between $63,000–$71,500.

Institutional outflows and whale selling drive persistent Bitcoin headwinds

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a fifth consecutive week of net outflows totaling approximately $403.9 million, indicating reduced institutional demand. During this period, large Bitcoin holders (wallets with 10 to 10,000 BTC) reduced their combined holdings to the lowest level since May 2025, while retail accumulation saw a minor uptick. Analysts have also observed a correlation between US Treasury bill issuance and subsequent Bitcoin price adjustments, which serves as a secondary background factor. Persistent ETF outflows and waning institutional interest have created headwinds for BTC.

Bearish momentum confirmed by technical signals amid moderate volatility

Momentum signals are decisively bearish with the MACD indicating a strong sell and the ADX confirming a persistent downward trend. The RSI and Commodity Channel Index both register sell signals, while the Stochastic RSI reads overbought, highlighting lingering bearish momentum and the risk of near-term exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power shows oversold conditions and persistent seller dominance, underscoring negative intraday momentum. There was no significant gap between the previous close ($67,790.10) and today’s open ($68,022.80), and the current price lies around the middle of today’s range ($67,560 – $68,088.18), suggesting moderate volatility and a tone of sideways consolidation after the open. Oscillators are mixed with some signals hinting at short-term exhaustion, but overall momentum remains negative.

Rangebound outlook as weak momentum favors downside risk

Looking ahead, the expected price range for the next five trading days is adjusted to $63,000 – $71,500 to reflect a volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), while a decline remains far more likely. The baseline scenario is for BTC to remain locked in a sideways corridor between support and resistance as momentum weakens. A break above $75,300 could shift the outlook bullish, while a drop below $63,000 might trigger further selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees sustained downside momentum for Bitcoin. He notes persistent ETF outflows and weak institutional demand as key headwinds. Technical indicators confirm a bearish trend and limited rebound potential. "As long as Bitcoin remains below $75,300.00, my outlook stays defensive and any rallies should be viewed with skepticism."

Previously it was reported that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies face a 1,250% risk weight under Basel III rules, requiring banks to fully back crypto holdings with capital and making BTC custody significantly more expensive than other asset classes such as cash, gold, or sovereign bonds. The Basel Committee has recently signaled openness to revisiting these capital requirements, amid industry criticism that the high risk weightings reduce banks’ return on equity and effectively suppress crypto-related banking activities.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.