Solana: SEC action on ETF proposal drives decline

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Solana drops 9.77% to $78.78 today

Highlights

The SEC began reviewing Nasdaq's VanEck JitoSOL ETF proposal on February 27, potentially setting a regulatory precedent for Solana’s US institutional access.
Solana adoption is broadening as SoFi allows over 13.7 million users to deposit SOL directly, strengthening Solana’s bridge to traditional finance despite price weakness.
SOL trades at $78.78, below all major moving averages with immediate resistance at $86.81, and technicals signal over 80% probability of further price declines this week.

Institutional access uncertainty as SEC reviews solana ETF proposal

On February 27, the US Securities and Exchange Commission began its review of Nasdaq's proposal for the VanEck JitoSOL ETF, which seeks to provide regulated US market access to Solana staking via liquid staking tokens. Approval or rejection of this ETF will set a regulatory precedent for Solana’s institutional accessibility and US investor inflows. Separately, Solana has seen rising adoption by traditional financial actors, as SoFi enabled direct SOL deposits for more than 13.7 million users and deepened integration with the conventional banking sector, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum confirmed as high volatility meets weak open

Market momentum remains muted, with the MACD showing a strong sell on both daily and weekly timeframes and the ADX indicating a strong trend continuation to the downside. The RSI (40.26 D1 and 28.87 W1) points to bearish conditions but not extreme oversold yet, while the Stochastic RSI and CCI reflect pockets of oversold intraday readings. Bull/Bear Power is classified as overbought intraday, but its negative value suggests persistent seller dominance. There was a clear opening gap down from $87.31 to $81.80, with SOL now trading near the lower end of today’s range ($77.21 – $82.23). Intraday volatility has been high, and after the weak open, bears have kept the pressure on with little relief throughout the session, confirming the current momentum signals.

Seller dominance expected as further declines remain highly probable

For the next five trading days, a price range between $70.00 and $85.00 aligns with a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of further price declines is assessed as very high (more than 80%), while a sustained rebound is less likely. The baseline scenario anticipates SOL consolidating within this corridor, with sellers retaining control unless strong buying emerges. A bullish scenario requires a break above immediate resistance at $86.81, while a bearish scenario may unfold if SOL slips below $77.00, risking a move toward lower weekly supports.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that Solana remains under heavy price pressure despite growing traditional finance adoption and the potential impact of the VanEck JitoSOL ETF decision. He sees current technicals as firmly bearish, yet highlights that macro and regulatory catalysts could trigger renewed inflows. The analyst believes that strong institutional interest is accumulating and could quickly reverse sentiment if resistance at $86.81 is broken. Still, most signals favor a period of consolidation and persistent downside pressure in the near term. "I remain optimistic on Solana’s long-term prospects, but for now, buyers need to wait for a decisive break above $86.81 to signal a shift in momentum."

Previously it was reported that Solana is trading well below all major moving averages, with technical indicators such as the MACD, ADX, and RSI confirming strong bearish momentum and the asset trending toward oversold conditions. Immediate resistance is noted at $86.81, while the lack of dynamic support and continued downside pressure suggest further consolidation or declines remain likely in the near term.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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