Avalanche price prediction: Range trading ahead as AVAX rallies above support

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Avalanche jumps 7.54% to $10.41 today

Highlights

Solana now supports Avalanche tokens, enabling frictionless liquidity transfers and boosting DeFi asset diversity across both blockchains.
Grayscale's new Avalanche Staking ETF, launched on NASDAQ, creates regulated exposure to AVAX and its staking rewards for investors.
AVAX is showing short-term bullish momentum above immediate supports, but technical indicators warn of overbought conditions and a likely sideways to downside range of $9.30–$11.00.

Interoperability expands and ETF listing boosts institutional access

Solana has integrated the Avalanche token to improve blockchain interoperability, making it easier for users to trade and transfer liquidity between Solana and Avalanche platforms. This expands the assets available on Solana's DeFi applications and strengthens connections between these two high-throughput, low-cost networks. In addition, Grayscale has launched an Avalanche Staking ETF on NASDAQ, allowing investors to gain regulated access to AVAX and its staking process.

Mixed momentum and overbought signals raise reversal risk despite gains

Technical analysis shows that Ichimoku Kijun at $9.24 serves as immediate support for AVAX, which currently trades above short- and medium-term moving averages but below the long-term SMA-200. There is no MA-50 and MA-200 cross observed. Momentum indicators are mixed — ADX (24.50) and MACD (0.13, neutral) reflect moderate trend strength without a clear bias, while the RSI is constructive at 58.61. Stoch RSI (100.00) and CCI (132.49) highlight overbought conditions, which raises short-term reversal risks. BBP at 0.56 and a bullish Awesome Oscillator confirm prevailing buyer dominance. AVAX has shown a strong upward move of 7.54% today, opening with a small gap up from $9.68 to $9.98, and is currently near the session’s high of $10.52, indicating heightened volatility alongside sustained buying strength. Oscillator divergence signals potential for a short-term pullback, even as underlying momentum remains favorable.

Pullback risk grows as bearish signals limit upside scenario

In the short term, AVAX is expected to trade within a $9.30 – $11.00 range, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. Given that only MACD, RSI, and ADX on W1 signal “Sell” and MA-50 also points down, the likelihood of continued price gains is low (less than 20%), so a pullback scenario is favored. The base expectation is for sideways movement between $9.30 and $11.00. A close above $11.00 would open the door to further upside, while a sustained move below $9.30 could trigger a deeper decline as longer-term indicators remain bearish.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union expert, sees Avalanche maintaining short-term momentum above key moving averages but facing persistent long-term resistance. He notes that institutional interest, like the Grayscale ETF launch, and Solana integration support sentiment yet do not outweigh technical overbought signals. Kharitonov remains cautious, expecting price to stay range-bound between $9.30 and $11.00 with a pullback more likely than a breakout. "Until AVAX closes above $11.00, I see limited upside and caution against chasing rallies at these levels."

Avalanche remained under persistent bearish pressure, with technical indicators pointing to weak momentum and sellers maintaining control. The recent upside fueled by interoperability developments and ETF news signals a shift in sentiment, but traders should watch for overbought conditions that could trigger a near-term pullback within the newly established trading range.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.