Solana price prediction: Bearish outlook dominates as SOL struggles near $86

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Solana slides 3.44% today to $86.07

Highlights

Solana led blockchain DEX volumes in March 2026 with $49.46 billion, driven by activity on major decentralized exchanges.
Regulatory momentum increased as seven issuers filed or amended spot SOL ETF applications with the SEC, raising expectations for approval before year-end.
SOL trades below key trend levels in a bearish technical structure, with a projected trading range of $82.00 to $90.00 and further downside risk.

ETF application surge and validator reforms meet continued selling

In March 2026, Solana was reported to have led all blockchains in decentralized exchange trading volume for the month, reaching approximately $49.46 billion. Regulatory sentiment shifted as seven issuers filed or amended applications for spot SOL ETFs with the SEC, while Bloomberg projected a high likelihood of approval before 2025 ends, with official SEC dates undisclosed. Transaction activity was concentrated across key DEXes including Humidifi, Orca, Meteora, Manifest, Raydium, and PumpSwap. The Solana Foundation also announced validator delegation reforms set for implementation on May 1, 2025, bringing stricter requirements for transaction ordering and network decentralization, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Momentum signals diverge as intraday sellers dominate trade

Momentum is subdued, with daily MACD signaling strong buy but ADX remaining neutral at low levels, reflecting weak trend strength. Oscillators such as RSI (46.11), low Stoch RSI (2.83), and neutral CCI point to oversold conditions, while BBP highlights buyer dominance intraday despite currently being classified as overbought. Today, SOL fell 3.44% with no significant gap between sessions, trading near the lower end of the intraday range and experiencing moderate volatility, which indicates continued selling pressure after the open. There is a clear divergence between momentum (MACD-bullish) and oscillators (mostly bearish or oversold), while intraday tone and daily movement confirm sellers are in control short-term, in contrast to MACD’s isolated optimism.

Sideways trade likely as price risks skew toward further declines

Over the next five trading days, the expected volatility band relative to current levels is projected between $82.00 and $90.00. The probability of a price increase remains very low (less than 20%), making further decline more likely. The baseline scenario suggests sideways movement within this corridor. If SOL breaks above immediate resistance, a bullish move toward $90.00 is possible, while a drop below support near $82.00 would trigger a deeper bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Solana under significant technical pressure while short-term interest from buyers is not enough to reverse the prevailing bearish trend. Despite positive developments such as ETF filings and network reforms, momentum remains weak and major resistance holds firm. The analyst believes sideways consolidation below $90.00 is the most likely outcome unless market sentiment shifts sharply. "Until Solana breaks above the $88.97 resistance, I remain cautious and see downside risk dominating the near-term setup."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana’s short- and medium-term resilience was offset by ongoing long-term selling pressure and heightened regulatory and cybersecurity considerations. The current environment reinforces these concerns, as technical signals remain muted and downside probabilities dominate, making the $82.00 support level a critical threshold for potential bearish continuation in the near term.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.