Bitcoin price prediction: $69,800 support in focus as BTC slides 1.19%

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Bitcoin drops 1.19% to $70,859.96 today

Highlights

Morgan Stanley and Nicholas Wealth launched new spot Bitcoin ETFs with low management fees, intensifying competition for institutional capital.
March saw $1.32 billion in net Bitcoin ETF inflows, with BlackRock leading and Coinbase maintaining over 80% custody share as regulatory attention persists.
Bitcoin trades in a sideways range between $68,000 and $74,000, with mixed signals and downside risk prevailing in the near term.

ETF inflows and regulatory moves shape institutional sentiment amid selling pressure

On April 13, 2026, investors were offered two new spot Bitcoin ETFs, as Morgan Stanley launched the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) and Nicholas Wealth introduced the Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF (NGHT), with MSBT's management fee set at 0.14% in an effort to capture institutional market share. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.32 billion in net inflows for March, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for the majority of a weekly $789 million inflow at that time. Coinbase was reported as the primary custodian for over 80% of Bitcoin ETF assets, accompanied by regulatory developments supporting its institutional role. US lawmakers are approaching a May deadline for the CLARITY Act to address federal rules for digital assets, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum emerges with support at key averages and neutral trend signals

Technically, BTC remains above short-term (MA-20 at $69,159.33) and medium-term (MA-50 at $69,158.98) moving averages, but continues to trade well below the long-term MA-200 at $87,889.72. Immediate support is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at $69,836.17. On the daily timeframe, momentum indicators are mixed: MACD shows mild bullish bias, ADX at 13.70 signals a neutral or weak trend, while RSI is at 52.44 (buy) and CCI is moderately positive. However, the Stoch RSI indicates strong selling, and BBP reflects overbought conditions with intraday buyer dominance. The Awesome Oscillator is also pointed upward, but overall, daily losses and mixed oscillator signals highlight indecisive momentum.

Limited upside seen as volatility bands and bearish risk dominate outlook

For the coming five sessions, the expected weekly range is now set at $68,000 – $74,000, consistent with the typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of significant upside is low (less than 20%), favoring a downside bias in the short term. Consolidation within a sideways channel is the base scenario. An upward move requires a breakout above $71,000 – $71,300, while weakness below $69,800 could open the path for retests near $68,000; long-term signals advise ongoing caution, with risks skewed moderately lower.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Bitcoin maintaining short- and medium-term bullish momentum above key moving averages, but warns that the price remains well below its long-term resistance at the MA-200. He notes that despite healthy ETF inflows and the launch of new institutional products, daily technical signals are mixed and momentum remains indecisive. Kharitonov believes the risk of downside persists, with a base case for consolidation within $68,000 – $74,000 and a low probability of significant upside. "With weak trend strength and ongoing regulatory uncertainty, I remain cautious and prefer to wait for a clean breakout above $71,300 before considering bullish scenarios."

Earlier, analysts noted that despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and regulatory shifts, Bitcoin maintained short- and medium-term strength but faced persistent long-term resistance. The latest combination of renewed ETF inflows and mixed technical signals adds fresh complexity to near-term trading, with consolidation inside a wide $68,000–$74,000 channel now a key scenario as markets await clarity from U.S. lawmakers and emerging institutional activity.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.