XMR rises amid launch plans for new privacy protocol FCMP++ and CARROT: weekly forecast

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Monero gains 6.22% over the week

Highlights

Monero shows near-term resistance with price consolidating between dynamic support and resistance after a 6.2% weekly gain.
Momentum indicators are mixed, signaling uncertainty and an equal probability of upward or downward movement in the coming week.
Expected trading range for the next seven days is $350 to $390, with sideways action and potential for increased volatility.

Protocol upgrade news and rising demand drive bullish sentiment this week

Monero’s core team announced the launch date for the second beta stressnet of Full‑Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) and CARROT, planned for May 6, aiming to improve protocol privacy features. The week also saw sustained growth in both retail and derivatives demand, with futures Open Interest rising to about $139 million since early February. Additionally, positive funding rates for XMR futures highlighted continued bullish sentiment among traders.

Mixed weekly momentum emerges as resistance holds and volatility stays elevated

On the weekly timeframe, volatility reached 12.39% with Monero closing mid-range. The price is testing overhead resistance at the MA-20 while finding support at the MA-50 and MA-200. Weekly momentum indicators are mixed: the ADX reflects moderate bullish strength, but MACD signals waning momentum with a slight bearish tilt. RSI is neutral-bullish, neither overbought nor oversold, and both Stochastic RSI and CCI indicate an absence of extremes. Bull/Bear Power is overbought, yet the Awesome Oscillator remains negative, revealing divergence and a lack of conviction in trend direction.

Sideways action likely next week while pivotal range caps breakout risk

For the next seven days, XMR is expected to trade sideways within a $350 to $390 range, balancing between weekly resistance and support. Probabilities are split 50% for both upside and downside moves, with half of the major weekly indicators in buy territory. A decisive break above $390 could open the way to a challenge of yearly highs, while a drop below $350 would expose XMR to further declines toward subsequent moving averages. Consolidation is the baseline scenario, with choppy conditions likely to persist.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that Monero made steady gains this week, underpinned by strong retail and derivatives demand and bullish sentiment around upcoming privacy protocol upgrades. He observes that technicals remain mixed, with XMR trading between resistance at $390.93 and support at $353.21. Indications of moderate bullish strength are offset by waning momentum and divergence in weekly oscillators, keeping trend conviction low. The analyst foresees a sideways week ahead, with balanced odds for breakout or breakdown as the price consolidates within the established range. "With momentum mixed and news flow constructive, I’ll focus on choppy trading opportunities and watch for a decisive move above $390 to shift gears."

Earlier, analysts noted that Monero was consolidating within a defined range amid persistent selling pressure and regulatory-driven uncertainty. The introduction of upcoming network upgrades and increased derivatives activity now adds momentum and complexity to Monero's outlook, making a sustained move outside the prevailing $350–$390 trading range a key risk to monitor in the near term.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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