Solana price prediction: $80.00 support in focus? SOL drops 2.04%

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Solana falls 2.04% today to $83.41

Highlights

The Solana ecosystem is advancing a phased upgrade to integrate Falcon signatures, addressing quantum computing threats and enhancing post-quantum security.
Regulatory uncertainty remains as SOL faces constraints on institutional participation and ETF eligibility due to unresolved SEC classification concerns.
SOL trades under major moving averages with momentum indicators mixed, downside favored, and $80.00–$86.00 predicted as the near-term trading range.

Security upgrades and regulatory uncertainty drive ecosystem shifts

The Solana ecosystem initiated security roadmap updates in late April 2026 to address threats from quantum computing, with the Foundation and development teams integrating the Falcon signature scheme as a post-quantum measure. This transition is being carried out in phases and includes collaboration with research partners. Additionally, regulatory uncertainty regarding the SEC's previous classification of SOL as a potential unregistered security persists, restricting certain institutional participation and ETF eligibility, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Broad technical weakness as resistance forms and momentum falters

SOL trades below the SMA-20 ($85.40), SMA-50 ($85.92), and SMA-200 ($120.62), while the Ichimoku Kijun level on the daily chart is at $83.72—now acting as immediate resistance. Daily MACD gives a strong buy signal, but ADX remains low at 8.55, indicating lack of trend strength. RSI on the daily timeframe is at 48.04 (sell), with both Stoch RSI and CCI showing oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) reflects recent buyer activity but signals overbought, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral; intraday movement confirms downside pressure as the session trades near today’s low.

Further downside risk if $80 support fails amid low upside odds

Over the next five trading days, SOL is expected to move within a volatility band between $80.00 and $86.00. The probability of upward movement is low (less than 20%), and further declines remain more likely given prevailing technical signals. Holding above $80.00 would point to a broad consolidation scenario, while a breakout above $83.72 is needed for any bullish momentum. A move below the $80.00 support could trigger further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union expert, sees a cautious outlook for Solana as it trades below all major moving averages and faces immediate resistance at $83.72. Technical momentum is weak, and regulatory concerns continue to cloud institutional sentiment and ETF potential. Kharitonov notes that, while the ecosystem’s post-quantum security efforts are positive long-term, short-term price action suggests more downside risk. "Until SOL can firmly reclaim $83.72, I remain defensive, with the $80.00 level critical for avoiding deeper losses."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana faced ongoing selling pressure and mixed technical signals amid broader macro and ecosystem challenges. The latest security upgrades and unresolved regulatory questions reinforce a cautious near-term outlook, with consolidation and heightened volatility expected as SOL trades below key resistance levels.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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