Bitcoin price prediction: $77,500 support in focus as BTC slides 1.15%

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Bitcoin drops 1.15% today to $78,121

Highlights

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1 billion in net outflows for the week ending May 15, signaling sharp investor withdrawals.
Weaker institutional demand and selling pressure from miners weighed on Bitcoin despite Abu Dhabi's Mubadala increasing its iShares Bitcoin ETF holdings by 16%.
Technicals indicate short-term downside pressure with probability favoring a rangebound move between $76,000 and $82,000, as selling persists and momentum signals diverge.

Large ETF outflows and miner sales weaken institutional support

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1 billion in net outflows during the week ending May 15, reflecting significant fund withdrawals and diminishing passive demand for Bitcoin. Additional factors included selling pressure from miners and higher bond yields, both of which contributed to increased liquidity and supply in the market. Although Abu Dhabi's Mubadala fund raised its position in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF by 16% to $566 million in the first quarter, institutional demand otherwise appeared to weaken, while regulatory progress in the Senate offered little immediate support.

Narrow trading range and mixed momentum signal seller dominance

On the technical front, BTC remains positioned between the SMA-50 at $75,204.39 and SMA-20 at $79,332.02, with the SMA-200 overhead at $81,783.15 acting as a key resistance level. The Ichimoku Kijun now aligns as immediate resistance at $78,835.79. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD shows a strong buy, while the ADX indicates modest trend strength. The daily RSI is neutral-to-weak at 49.21. Both Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) highlight oversold intraday readings, hinting at seller dominance. Meanwhile, the Commodity Channel Index and Awesome Oscillator remain neutral. With price trading near the session low of $77,727.97 and confined to a narrow range, intraday volatility is subdued amid sustained selling pressure.

Sideways action favored as resistance caps upside breakout odds

In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to remain within a volatility band between $76,000 and $82,000. Weekly technical signals indicate a low probability of a sustained upside move, with less than a 20% chance of a breakout from this range. The base case scenario points to sideways action as long as support at $77,500 holds. Upside potential emerges only if resistance near $78,800–$79,000 is decisively cleared, opening a possible move toward $82,000. Conversely, a loss of $77,500 would put $76,000 at risk as sellers maintain pressure.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views the recent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs as a temporary setback rather than a loss of faith in digital assets. He notes that despite short-term selling pressure and weaker institutional flows, the gradual growth of high-profile positions such as Mubadala's signals continued strategic interest. Regulatory progress in the Senate provides longer-term support even if it has yet to shift near-term sentiment. Karapetjanc remains constructively optimistic on Bitcoin’s outlook. "If major support near $77,500 holds, I see upside potential reviving soon as long-term demand drivers remain intact."

Earlier, analysts noted that despite institutional interest and evolving regulatory frameworks, Bitcoin’s price action remained constrained by persistent volatility and market uncertainty. The current environment reinforces this cautious outlook, with sustained ETF outflows and subdued momentum keeping downside risks in focus—traders should closely monitor $77,500 as the key level that could shift the near-term bias.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.