Bitcoin price prediction: Will $75,000–$74,000 support hold? BTC trades flat

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Bitcoin slips 0.03% to $76,911 today

Highlights

The U.S. government established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve holding 328,372 BTC, limiting supply as these coins are restricted from sale by executive order.
Market sentiment is pressured by over $1 billion in net outflows from U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs and Bitcoin Depot's Chapter 11 bankruptcy, reducing retail access.
Bitcoin trades in a bearish-to-neutral pattern, with resistance near $78,900 and support at $74,000–$75,000, signaling a high likelihood of further range-bound or downward movement.

Supply outlook shifts as U.S. reserves build and retail access shrinks

The U.S. administration has advanced plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, with legal clearance now in place and an estimated 328,372 BTC under government control, restricted from sale by executive order. This development alters the potential supply dynamics for Bitcoin by removing a substantial amount of BTC from circulation, but its immediate liquidity impact remains limited. Meanwhile, Bitcoin Depot initiated Chapter 11 proceedings and is shutting down its ATM network, reducing retail access channels, while U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs saw over $1 billion in net outflows and short-term holders realized losses on more than 15,000 BTC, intensifying recent selling activity.

Seller dominance persists amid strong buy signals and limited trend strength

Technically, BTC trades below its 20-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 20-day at $79,365.21 and the 200-day at $81,463.32, but remains just above the 50-day MA at $75,644.19. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $78,893.76 presents immediate resistance, while the $75,644–$74,000 zone acts as medium-term support. The MACD on daily settings shows a strong buy, though the ADX at 21.92 signals only limited trend conviction. Oscillators including RSI (45.16), CCI (–110.45), and Stoch RSI (0.00) all highlight oversold conditions, and the BBP remains firmly negative, underscoring strong near-term seller dominance. The Awesome Oscillator shows a neutral tone, and the current session is marked by low volatility and consolidation within the $76,487.84–$77,406.82 range.

Sideways bias expected as bearish models cap upside probability

Short-term, the expected 5-day trading range for BTC is set at $74,000 to $79,500, aligning with typical volatility bands relative to current levels. Probability models indicate less than a 20% chance of an upside move, given bearish signals from weekly indicators including MA-50, RSI, ADX, and MACD. The base case anticipates continued sideways movement within this range. A break above the $78,900 Kijun resistance could initiate a push toward the upper band, while a failure to hold the $75,000–$74,000 support area might lead to further downside toward the next set of moving average supports.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that fundamental headwinds are mounting for Bitcoin after the recent legal greenlight for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and growing institutional outflows. He sees supply effectively taken out of circulation by the reserve but warns the immediate impact is muted, while ETF withdrawals and retail channel closures are adding clear demand pressure. Technically, weak momentum and dominance of sellers keep the bias tilted to the downside, with $74,000–$75,000 as the next key level to watch. "Base case remains sideways or lower unless buyers reclaim $78,900 — for now, caution is warranted."

Previously it was reported that major institutional investors, including BlackRock continued to deepen their exposure to Bitcoin-linked equities despite heightened volatility in the underlying asset. With the U.S. government now signaling a structural shift in Bitcoin's supply dynamics through the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and ongoing pressure from reduced retail access, traders should prepare for prolonged consolidation, with the $74,000–$79,500 range likely to define near-term market direction.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.